{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9919cdf1-ce78-43d1-9bcd-485f3df34e07", "symbol": "KK", "name": "Kruso Kapital S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 52.972, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.751, "architecture_energy": 10.319, "architecture_maturity": 32.791, "architecture_confidence": 67.786, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.11, "rotation_up": 24.56, "upward_expansion": 46.49, "deceleration": 82.01, "rotation_down": 26.81, "downward_expansion": 24.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.01784, 0.018031, 0.018076, 0.0178 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.018, "trend_reference": 0.017386, "distance_from_trend": 0.035296, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.018685, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.036676, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.874739, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.130795, "excess_performance": -0.040096, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035296, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036175, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.036676, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004848, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118747, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000157, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130795, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.905854, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12469053, "relative_activity": 1.084449, "balance": 0.905854, "dry_up": 2.797261, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072222, "annualized_volatility": 0.326246, "from_high_reference": -0.134615, "from_low_reference": 0.191895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.017386, "fair_value_reference": 0.018685, "structural_low": 0.015204, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010634, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.064841, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053932, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022989, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", 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"relative_strength": -10.893613, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.186088, "energy": 17.920202, "activity_lines": [ 0.018027, 0.018284, 0.01808, 0.017755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0174, "volume": 10796021, "typical_volume": 11099508.65, "trend": 0.017351, "fair_value": 0.01869, "relative_strength": -12.877795, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.860928, "energy": 13.523062, "activity_lines": [ 0.0178, 0.018104, 0.01805, 0.017758 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.018, "volume": 12469053, "typical_volume": 11498051.3, "trend": 0.017386, "fair_value": 0.018685, "relative_strength": -11.874739, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.750675, "energy": 10.318538, "activity_lines": [ 0.01784, 0.018031, 0.018076, 0.0178 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }