{ "ticker": { "uuid": "991ee556-cb3e-4ce3-bd05-818098118d08", "symbol": "NOM", "name": "Nordic Mining ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -90.958, "architecture_energy": 74.666, "architecture_maturity": 90.802, "architecture_confidence": 75.315, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 14.92, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.55, "rotation_down": 75.84, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.673, 5.520364, 7.441286, 8.565591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.55, "trend_reference": 9.817833, "distance_from_trend": -0.740269, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.612462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.855216, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -82.283364, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.777487, "excess_performance": -0.902481, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.740269, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.249458, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.855216, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.502854, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.822834, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.428369, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.777487, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.479121, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5614673, "relative_activity": 3.424065, "balance": 0.479121, "dry_up": 1.515983, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.587934, "annualized_volatility": 1.455194, "from_high_reference": -0.892857, "from_low_reference": 0.003937 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.817833, "fair_value_reference": 17.612462, "structural_low": 2.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.033335, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.038443, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.164964, "worst_return": -0.362197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.141925, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.089689, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.067241, "worst_return": -0.468862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.318668, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.412394, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.455172, "worst_return": -0.498274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.508559, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.737661, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.909052, "worst_return": -0.694217, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.132, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086673, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000607, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153693, "active": false 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"2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072043, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.06302, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05481, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027642, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.777487, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.68, "volume": 1141514, "typical_volume": 1497497.1, "trend": 14.8261, "fair_value": 30.748145, "relative_strength": -46.800157, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.881946, "energy": 95.390213, "activity_lines": [ 5.628667, 7.008091, 8.79731, 9.678892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.89, "volume": 1803326, "typical_volume": 1415757.8, "trend": 10.680167, "fair_value": 17.707013, "relative_strength": -61.238872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.276517, "energy": 84.725268, "activity_lines": [ 5.553667, 6.618364, 8.412095, 9.344065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.36, "volume": 1094065, "typical_volume": 1418231.55, "trend": 10.296167, "fair_value": 17.672397, "relative_strength": -57.165508, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.526098, "energy": 66.885393, "activity_lines": [ 5.732, 6.377, 8.095976, 9.065344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.55, "volume": 5614673, "typical_volume": 1639768.25, "trend": 9.817833, "fair_value": 17.612462, "relative_strength": -82.283364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.957792, "energy": 74.665801, "activity_lines": [ 4.673, 5.520364, 7.441286, 8.565591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }