{ "ticker": { "uuid": "991fa4fb-cfa6-4893-99d1-ab8416f21770", "symbol": "QS5S", "name": "WisdomTree NASDAQ 100 5x Daily Short", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.444, "architecture_energy": 55.765, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.299, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.8, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 27.0, "deceleration": 46.92, "rotation_down": 45.89, "downward_expansion": 68.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.45552, 0.445693, 0.487588, 0.637071 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.375, "trend_reference": 0.817013, "distance_from_trend": -0.541011, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.679536, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.898085, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -70.393057, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.690083, "excess_performance": -0.860974, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.541011, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237467, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.898085, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019291, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.703931, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020649, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.690083, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.412311, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2172156, "relative_activity": 1.384211, "balance": 0.412311, "dry_up": 0.586451, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.218421, "annualized_volatility": 1.031879, "from_high_reference": -0.8125, "from_low_reference": 0.018468 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.817013, "fair_value_reference": 3.679536, "structural_low": 0.3682, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.131311, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.094708, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.174355, "worst_return": -0.427713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.292664, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.364857, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.259688, "worst_return": -0.325641, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.524774, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.680243, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.524774, "worst_return": -0.524774, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11737, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.169874, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.355278, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085696, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.463749, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-19", "close": 9.307, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-26", "close": 9.307, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-02", "close": 9.307, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.007397, "energy": 84.951255, "activity_lines": [ 0.410933, 0.420484, 0.588248, 0.740706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.4856, "volume": 329527, "typical_volume": 1485984.4, "trend": 0.881873, "fair_value": 3.771359, "relative_strength": -63.739729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.007105, "energy": 79.108097, "activity_lines": [ 0.43566, 0.429742, 0.559356, 0.71366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.5045, "volume": 261139, "typical_volume": 1474093.85, "trend": 0.86213, "fair_value": 3.74054, "relative_strength": -61.208254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.115669, "energy": 70.609844, "activity_lines": [ 0.462647, 0.442693, 0.5356, 0.689313 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5177, "volume": 918300, "typical_volume": 1479862.35, "trend": 0.840333, "fair_value": 3.71042, "relative_strength": -59.112686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.164701, "energy": 47.5823, "activity_lines": [ 0.485307, 0.45774, 0.516439, 0.667092 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.375, "volume": 2172156, "typical_volume": 1569237.5, "trend": 0.817013, "fair_value": 3.679536, "relative_strength": -70.393057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.443662, "energy": 55.765237, "activity_lines": [ 0.45552, 0.445693, 0.487588, 0.637071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }