{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99265b29-5620-4551-b672-16e85e5ccbe6", "symbol": "FDNI", "name": "First Trust Dow Jones International Internet ETF Class A USD", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 20.366, "architecture_energy": 30.012, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 41.255, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.98, "rotation_up": 51.56, "upward_expansion": 36.67, "deceleration": 44.4, "rotation_down": 16.74, "downward_expansion": 45.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.992, 15.656582, 15.610286, 15.757643 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.6, "trend_reference": 16.206733, "distance_from_trend": 0.024266, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.39941, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012232, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.42735, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.04013, "excess_performance": -0.211021, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024266, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07944, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012232, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045473, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214273, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05221, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04013, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.052501, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35, "relative_activity": 0.025218, "balance": 0.052501, "dry_up": 0.753657, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030065, "annualized_volatility": 0.241822, "from_high_reference": -0.27193, "from_low_reference": 0.172648 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.206733, "fair_value_reference": 16.39941, "structural_low": 14.156, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.002957, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.024279, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.186556, "worst_return": -0.110025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010406, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072272, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.211281, "worst_return": -0.155904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.034318, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.157823, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.118775, "worst_return": -0.146127, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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[ 15.441867, 15.386945, 15.53699, 15.861871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.214, "volume": 4137, "typical_volume": 1448.45, "trend": 16.4392, "fair_value": 16.375462, "relative_strength": -26.475347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.751338, "energy": 25.930587, "activity_lines": [ 15.4376, 15.346836, 15.492114, 15.7744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.894, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 1386.2, "trend": 16.314533, "fair_value": 16.382167, "relative_strength": -23.13313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.059633, "energy": 22.481323, "activity_lines": [ 15.6452, 15.439455, 15.515962, 15.739226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.6, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 1387.9, "trend": 16.206733, "fair_value": 16.39941, "relative_strength": -21.42735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 20.366212, "energy": 30.011659, "activity_lines": [ 15.992, 15.656582, 15.610286, 15.757643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }