{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9929220d-402e-446e-bb0b-8bcc3ca33924", "symbol": "GRND3", "name": "Grendene S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.068, "architecture_energy": 63.445, "architecture_maturity": 30.231, "architecture_confidence": 86.061, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 20.16, "upward_expansion": 10.16, "deceleration": 47.76, "rotation_down": 67.0, "downward_expansion": 85.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.691333, 3.757636, 3.893854, 4.044018 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.56, "trend_reference": 4.238158, "distance_from_trend": -0.160013, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.058862, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.122907, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.652353, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.249025, "excess_performance": -0.191977, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160013, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014885, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.122907, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121244, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166524, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016653, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.249025, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.861391, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21379300, "relative_activity": 1.686519, "balance": 0.861391, "dry_up": 0.944304, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057735, "annualized_volatility": 0.270292, "from_high_reference": -0.284022, "from_low_reference": 0.047059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.238158, "fair_value_reference": 4.058862, "structural_low": 3.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.012539, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.00162, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.173285, "worst_return": -0.108254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.01211, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.022934, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.357701, "worst_return": -0.082152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.121931, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.013132, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.346937, "worst_return": -0.116765, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 66.741338, "activity_lines": [ 3.85, 3.909015, 4.100396, 4.22535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.89, "volume": 10980800, "typical_volume": 17211940.0, "trend": 4.322494, "fair_value": 4.086807, "relative_strength": -13.49566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.702845, "energy": 54.491079, "activity_lines": [ 3.86, 3.893561, 4.065041, 4.197021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.85, "volume": 8095800, "typical_volume": 16617570.0, "trend": 4.313514, "fair_value": 4.080401, "relative_strength": -11.938012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.159078, "energy": 52.535267, "activity_lines": [ 3.851333, 3.878539, 4.029788, 4.166537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.66, "volume": 8889800, "typical_volume": 14860820.0, "trend": 4.28832, "fair_value": 4.072901, "relative_strength": -16.015155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.411224, "energy": 60.133247, "activity_lines": [ 3.786, 3.834, 3.981554, 4.124375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.75, "volume": 9517300, "typical_volume": 13144720.0, "trend": 4.26721, "fair_value": 4.066059, "relative_strength": -15.41521, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.414068, "energy": 54.21571, "activity_lines": [ 3.766667, 3.810727, 3.945244, 4.089645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.56, "volume": 21379300, "typical_volume": 12676585.0, "trend": 4.238158, "fair_value": 4.058862, "relative_strength": -16.652353, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.06776, "energy": 63.444638, "activity_lines": [ 3.691333, 3.757636, 3.893854, 4.044018 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }