{ "ticker": { "uuid": "992c8b18-db94-416c-a9d8-37b5bc751c9f", "symbol": "ANY", "name": "Sphere 3D Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.44, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.75, "architecture_energy": 12.256, "architecture_maturity": 18.748, "architecture_confidence": 58.68, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.89, "rotation_up": 22.94, "upward_expansion": 37.39, "deceleration": 81.63, "rotation_down": 35.64, "downward_expansion": 38.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.093333, 2.283818, 2.290952, 2.143161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.1, "trend_reference": 2.049, "distance_from_trend": 0.02489, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.756821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.760187, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -51.023906, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.173184, "excess_performance": -0.014269, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02489, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224989, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.760187, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065109, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.510239, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.176751, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.173184, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 15.961053, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1378583, "relative_activity": 0.135321, "balance": 15.961053, "dry_up": 0.484583, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.484264, "annualized_volatility": 1.595071, "from_high_reference": -0.833333, "from_low_reference": 0.936912 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.049, "fair_value_reference": 8.756821, "structural_low": 1.0842, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.128962, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.138213, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.441176, "worst_return": -0.404959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.186412, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.245038, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.048839, "worst_return": -0.521951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.26218, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.428896, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.17561, "worst_return": -0.407843, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.19485, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.577758, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.08117, "worst_return": -0.308529, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.210256, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.331094, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009709, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.22549, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087248, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.258503, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.297248, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.149798, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.417362, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.106464, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.476373, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.638852, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.579208, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.099476, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.0, "volume": 661347, "typical_volume": 3016009.7, "trend": 24.839, "fair_value": 132.705095, "relative_strength": -52.733007, "stage": 4, "regime": 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{ "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.44, "volume": 636316, "typical_volume": 10748804.9, "trend": 2.314733, "fair_value": 9.444833, "relative_strength": -48.821546, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.155043, "energy": 26.136397, "activity_lines": [ 2.874, 2.72, 2.28981, 2.189219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.09, "volume": 1555971, "typical_volume": 10782799.45, "trend": 2.241067, "fair_value": 9.288359, "relative_strength": -55.695197, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.333407, "energy": 10.384493, "activity_lines": [ 2.539333, 2.646545, 2.299429, 2.17472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.7, "volume": 833724, "typical_volume": 10727363.4, "trend": 2.173733, "fair_value": 9.135795, "relative_strength": -61.317187, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.635521, "energy": 14.765307, "activity_lines": [ 2.204667, 2.492727, 2.267714, 2.139813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.91, "volume": 12806724, "typical_volume": 10104871.85, "trend": 2.117033, "fair_value": 8.99291, "relative_strength": -54.608729, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.147857, "energy": 14.151652, "activity_lines": [ 2.015333, 2.379273, 2.254952, 2.122798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.42, "volume": 4727765, "typical_volume": 10175465.05, "trend": 2.087333, "fair_value": 8.874769, "relative_strength": -41.761039, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.824905, "energy": 18.53951, "activity_lines": [ 2.097333, 2.365455, 2.290095, 2.142344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.1, "volume": 1378583, "typical_volume": 10187512.95, "trend": 2.049, "fair_value": 8.756821, "relative_strength": -51.023906, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.750084, "energy": 12.255592, "activity_lines": [ 2.093333, 2.283818, 2.290952, 2.143161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }