{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9930d912-624d-4f09-88d4-836adafc39cf", "symbol": "4194", "name": "Holy Stone Healthcare Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.585, "architecture_energy": 64.628, "architecture_maturity": 14.563, "architecture_confidence": 90.034, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.78, "rotation_up": 11.31, "upward_expansion": 14.05, "deceleration": 37.62, "rotation_down": 72.71, "downward_expansion": 92.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.369333, 6.626182, 6.907381, 7.051333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 6.28, "trend_reference": 7.235333, "distance_from_trend": -0.132037, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.44405, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.532879, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.39511, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.209068, "excess_performance": -0.65044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.132037, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052678, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.532879, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016718, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.463951, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067572, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.209068, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.343073, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 213216, "relative_activity": 0.429126, "balance": 0.343073, "dry_up": 0.586908, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114527, "annualized_volatility": 0.330447, "from_high_reference": -0.478838, "from_low_reference": 0.057239 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.235333, "fair_value_reference": 13.44405, "structural_low": 5.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.029703, "positive_rate": 0.225806, "directional_follow_through": 0.774194, "median_excess_return": -0.051943, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.766169, "worst_return": -0.209852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.062106, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.115565, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.524324, "worst_return": -0.349345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01475, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.257194, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.492063, "worst_return": -0.549849, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 13.820081, "relative_strength": -44.634108, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.195849, "energy": 39.733068, "activity_lines": [ 6.866667, 6.981455, 7.163619, 7.244624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.24, "volume": 359812, "typical_volume": 507719.8, "trend": 7.290667, "fair_value": 13.689411, "relative_strength": -46.104687, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.605842, "energy": 60.629279, "activity_lines": [ 6.613333, 6.835091, 7.068524, 7.173806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.38, "volume": 228944, "typical_volume": 502000.55, "trend": 7.267667, "fair_value": 13.566508, "relative_strength": -45.052999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.147174, "energy": 62.875306, "activity_lines": [ 6.470667, 6.732, 6.991, 7.115054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 6.28, "volume": 213216, "typical_volume": 496860.6, "trend": 7.235333, "fair_value": 13.44405, "relative_strength": -46.39511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.5847, "energy": 64.628394, "activity_lines": [ 6.369333, 6.626182, 6.907381, 7.051333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }