{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9933d358-6fe2-4198-8dc6-1405a962b273", "symbol": "ATSI", "name": "Aplicaciones y Tratamiento de Sistemas, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.636, "architecture_energy": 88.958, "architecture_maturity": 26.965, "architecture_confidence": 86.757, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 8.96, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 80.79, "downward_expansion": 97.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.02, 4.065455, 4.158857, 4.212301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.02, "trend_reference": 4.286, "distance_from_trend": -0.062063, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.02866, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.00215, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.048245, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.082192, "excess_performance": -0.206623, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062063, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032651, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.00215, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084444, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210482, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120727, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082192, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.051384, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2815, "relative_activity": 0.236512, "balance": 0.051384, "dry_up": 3.878396, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009185, "annualized_volatility": 0.133381, "from_high_reference": -0.155462, "from_low_reference": 0.01005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.286, "fair_value_reference": 4.02866, "structural_low": 3.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.030921, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.06397, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.018779, "worst_return": -0.043062, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00463, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013953, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056338, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 3.52, "volume": 405, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] 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95.401396, "activity_lines": [ 4.166667, 4.213818, 4.271333, 4.312946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.08, "volume": 1575, "typical_volume": 3856.25, "trend": 4.368, "fair_value": 4.029032, "relative_strength": -18.766911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.854855, "energy": 94.458367, "activity_lines": [ 4.128, 4.180364, 4.249524, 4.293333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.06, "volume": 175390, "typical_volume": 12358.1, "trend": 4.346667, "fair_value": 4.029362, "relative_strength": -17.926051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.787537, "energy": 93.43245, "activity_lines": [ 4.094667, 4.151273, 4.228286, 4.273462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.0, "volume": 4650, "typical_volume": 12171.55, "trend": 4.322, "fair_value": 4.029053, "relative_strength": -20.152456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.363696, "energy": 96.806507, "activity_lines": [ 4.054667, 4.116364, 4.203333, 4.251097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.0, "volume": 1790, "typical_volume": 12096.0, "trend": 4.299333, "fair_value": 4.02875, "relative_strength": -20.414358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.142514, "energy": 93.8544, "activity_lines": [ 4.028, 4.086909, 4.179619, 4.230323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.02, "volume": 2815, "typical_volume": 11902.15, "trend": 4.286, "fair_value": 4.02866, "relative_strength": -21.048245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.635627, "energy": 88.957684, "activity_lines": [ 4.02, 4.065455, 4.158857, 4.212301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }