{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "99383d7d-a900-43ff-8552-8361ee1712e2",
    "symbol": "DB53",
    "name": "Xtrackers - CSI300 Swap UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 26.505,
    "architecture_energy": 24.966,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.112,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.474,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.76,
        "rotation_up": 23.91,
        "upward_expansion": 56.65,
        "deceleration": 88.33,
        "rotation_down": 41.69,
        "downward_expansion": 22.65
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        18.325466,
        18.514036,
        18.473466,
        18.215243
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 18.559999,
    "trend_reference": 17.865067,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.038899,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 14.35591,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.292847,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -11.535683,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.097835,
    "excess_performance": -0.076412,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038899,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040025,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.292847,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.025669,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.115357,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.092872,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.097835,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 5.0,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 5.0,
      "dry_up": 0.0,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.029426,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.157282,
      "from_high_reference": -0.037544,
      "from_low_reference": 0.29627
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 17.865067,
      "fair_value_reference": 14.35591,
      "structural_low": 16.309999,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.025488,
        "positive_rate": 0.285714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.285714,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013243,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.069893,
        "worst_return": -0.034477,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.075496,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.093212,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.080088,
        "worst_return": -0.103176,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.134996,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.091442,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.158633,
        "worst_return": -0.01136,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.072384,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.159793,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.072384,
        "worst_return": 0.072384,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.017333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.04918,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.013738,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.005521,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009974,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.055257,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.007531,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.115849,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.059588,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "return": 0.015232,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": false
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      {
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      {
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        "return": 0.004873,
        "active": true
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        "fair_value": 13.932974,
        "relative_strength": -1.1101,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.077534,
        "energy": 89.394251,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.2488,
          17.868982,
          17.546676,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 18.384001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 160.05,
        "trend": 17.106467,
        "fair_value": 13.965192,
        "relative_strength": -3.600765,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.869014,
        "energy": 84.799816,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.336001,
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          17.644743,
          17.41517
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 18.694,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 160.05,
        "trend": 17.177533,
        "fair_value": 13.999038,
        "relative_strength": -4.63709,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.636064,
        "energy": 82.43281,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.4828,
          18.192291,
          17.765029,
          17.517592
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 18.458,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 78.35,
        "trend": 17.239267,
        "fair_value": 14.033282,
        "relative_strength": -4.840096,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.231725,
        "energy": 61.901276,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.499734,
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          17.600202
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 18.48,
        "volume": 1779,
        "typical_volume": 167.3,
        "trend": 17.305333,
        "fair_value": 14.066154,
        "relative_strength": -7.326513,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.481696,
        "energy": 60.376074,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.503734,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 19.27,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 167.3,
        "trend": 17.413,
        "fair_value": 14.107256,
        "relative_strength": -7.279279,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.020498,
        "energy": 80.83737,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.761067,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 19.087999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 167.3,
        "trend": 17.5056,
        "fair_value": 14.147308,
        "relative_strength": -6.387421,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.661335,
        "energy": 84.323449,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.904666,
          18.701091,
          18.23,
          17.915067
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 19.011999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 167.3,
        "trend": 17.590467,
        "fair_value": 14.186654,
        "relative_strength": -8.920384,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.177923,
        "energy": 82.590075,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.975999,
          18.789491,
          18.340409,
          18.012254
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 18.864,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 167.3,
        "trend": 17.676533,
        "fair_value": 14.225038,
        "relative_strength": -8.412607,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.47366,
        "energy": 77.88101,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.9768,
          18.831236,
          18.4266,
          18.094417
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 17.808001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 167.3,
        "trend": 17.722467,
        "fair_value": 14.257628,
        "relative_strength": -11.727958,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.269869,
        "energy": 30.9692,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.598533,
          18.668073,
          18.404381,
          18.102899
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 18.469999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 93.95,
        "trend": 17.787133,
        "fair_value": 14.291577,
        "relative_strength": -9.605727,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.00505,
        "energy": 22.873063,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.485733,
          18.634763,
          18.44279,
          18.151127
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 18.048,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 93.95,
        "trend": 17.827067,
        "fair_value": 14.320077,
        "relative_strength": -11.504261,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 20.078869,
        "energy": 23.419714,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.2856,
          18.5248,
          18.434848,
          18.167957
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 18.559999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 93.95,
        "trend": 17.865067,
        "fair_value": 14.35591,
        "relative_strength": -11.535683,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.50505,
        "energy": 24.966243,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.325466,
          18.514036,
          18.473466,
          18.215243
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}