{ "ticker": { "uuid": "993875a5-e974-4be4-8d8f-0fd7733912af", "symbol": "XCX5", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI India Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.198, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.997, "architecture_energy": 17.612, "architecture_maturity": 21.008, "architecture_confidence": 57.509, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.2, "rotation_up": 42.09, "upward_expansion": 36.05, "deceleration": 43.64, "rotation_down": 28.65, "downward_expansion": 19.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 1422.133333, 1419.509091, 1407.930952, 1407.381183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1444.0, "trend_reference": 1419.225, "distance_from_trend": 0.017457, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1539.08141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061778, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.668479, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.04655, "excess_performance": -0.097785, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017457, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036856, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061778, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024818, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106685, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036213, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04655, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.650681, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98380, "relative_activity": 0.445007, "balance": 2.650681, "dry_up": 0.755969, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027162, "annualized_volatility": 0.173326, "from_high_reference": -0.316676, "from_low_reference": 0.11808 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1419.225, "fair_value_reference": 1539.08141, "structural_low": 1291.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.017434, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.025087, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.40552, "worst_return": -0.072594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.065421, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.072417, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.072752, "worst_return": -0.068832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.033882, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.102342, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.070308, "worst_return": -0.137695, "sufficient": false }, 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05353, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.062222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.068832, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015344, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047057, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"volume": 125116, "typical_volume": 224778.95, "trend": 1422.5, "fair_value": 1538.124679, "relative_strength": -11.759519, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.385102, "energy": 7.189295, "activity_lines": [ 1411.566667, 1412.736364, 1402.928571, 1405.994086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1444.0, "volume": 98380, "typical_volume": 221075.2, "trend": 1419.225, "fair_value": 1539.08141, "relative_strength": -10.668479, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.996895, "energy": 17.612394, "activity_lines": [ 1422.133333, 1419.509091, 1407.930952, 1407.381183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }