{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99396e3f-111c-4aed-b169-975b7e94ba14", "symbol": "INSP", "name": "Inspire Medical Systems Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 22.236, "architecture_energy": 29.873, "architecture_maturity": 21.934, "architecture_confidence": 42.628, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.06, "rotation_up": 47.67, "upward_expansion": 35.04, "deceleration": 43.7, "rotation_down": 14.18, "downward_expansion": 43.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.478, 50.614909, 48.606571, 50.383226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 60.16, "trend_reference": 55.086, "distance_from_trend": 0.092111, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 141.022692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.573402, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.782588, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.084323, "excess_performance": -0.209948, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092111, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250211, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.573402, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153876, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.247826, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.327147, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084323, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.385477, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5990179, "relative_activity": 1.146137, "balance": 1.385477, "dry_up": 0.835602, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090635, "annualized_volatility": 0.601076, "from_high_reference": -0.590832, "from_low_reference": 0.546132 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.086, "fair_value_reference": 141.022692, "structural_low": 38.91, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.006259, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.002782, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.241275, "worst_return": -0.332181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002464, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.032773, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.269001, "worst_return": -0.450905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.096624, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.162616, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.231465, "worst_return": -0.565523, 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"typical_volume": 5271705.0, "trend": 59.304667, "fair_value": 145.184103, "relative_strength": -37.919047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.56743, "energy": 24.111981, "activity_lines": [ 48.996, 46.422, 47.469048, 51.277849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.19, "volume": 3547193, "typical_volume": 5185068.65, "trend": 57.762, "fair_value": 143.648782, "relative_strength": -37.788053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.098451, "energy": 22.965803, "activity_lines": [ 49.55, 47.242364, 47.410429, 50.62529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.21, "volume": 4283471, "typical_volume": 5195973.65, "trend": 56.36, "fair_value": 142.193782, "relative_strength": -35.590839, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.896538, "energy": 18.03788, "activity_lines": [ 50.005333, 48.082, 47.514667, 50.138065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.16, "volume": 5990179, "typical_volume": 5226408.7, "trend": 55.086, "fair_value": 141.022692, "relative_strength": -24.782588, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 22.236341, "energy": 29.872753, "activity_lines": [ 53.478, 50.614909, 48.606571, 50.383226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }