{ "ticker": { "uuid": "994bb479-cd53-4187-8374-daf852f9dfe3", "symbol": "PDFS", "name": "PDF Solutions Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.617, "architecture_energy": 21.996, "architecture_maturity": 69.196, "architecture_confidence": 90.83, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.93, "rotation_up": 17.77, "upward_expansion": 51.66, "deceleration": 93.87, "rotation_down": 38.03, "downward_expansion": 20.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.49, 53.309091, 52.439619, 48.788452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 49.45, "trend_reference": 43.86, "distance_from_trend": 0.127451, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.276346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.581067, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 22.198116, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.701066, "excess_performance": 0.513613, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.127451, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.263589, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.581067, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117095, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.221981, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331001, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.701066, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.693726, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2606301, "relative_activity": 0.784971, "balance": 0.693726, "dry_up": 0.750207, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187158, "annualized_volatility": 0.609229, "from_high_reference": -0.310176, "from_low_reference": 1.664332 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.86, "fair_value_reference": 31.276346, "structural_low": 28.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.070395, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.009009, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.126569, "worst_return": -0.171095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.108757, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.045044, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.437587, "worst_return": -0.119985, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.278835, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.164917, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.58159, "worst_return": -0.02392, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128475, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03045, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095087, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059966, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117405, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.183977, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.163274, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137468, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.951761, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072901, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 33.88, "volume": 795666, "typical_volume": 817649.6, "trend": 39.900333, "fair_value": 26.574776, "relative_strength": -14.106763, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.738508, "energy": 40.984305, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.34279, "energy": 32.984132, "activity_lines": [ 56.446667, 56.865818, 52.153571, 47.591419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.98, "volume": 2062648, "typical_volume": 3169884.95, "trend": 42.712333, "fair_value": 31.160641, "relative_strength": 35.999376, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.539793, "energy": 21.486151, "activity_lines": [ 53.826, 56.145455, 52.538, 48.171419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.09, "volume": 3336526, "typical_volume": 3269188.7, "trend": 43.263667, "fair_value": 31.180962, "relative_strength": 21.107609, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.246542, "energy": 21.138453, "activity_lines": [ 50.534, 54.421818, 52.362905, 48.389333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.45, "volume": 2606301, "typical_volume": 3320249.75, "trend": 43.86, "fair_value": 31.276346, "relative_strength": 22.198116, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.617225, "energy": 21.996195, "activity_lines": [ 49.49, 53.309091, 52.439619, 48.788452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }