{ "ticker": { "uuid": "994f971e-9448-4cff-bb0f-47889243f378", "symbol": "CNOB", "name": "ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.998, "architecture_energy": 44.442, "architecture_maturity": 72.958, "architecture_confidence": 64.947, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.7, "rotation_up": 45.88, "upward_expansion": 77.73, "deceleration": 70.65, "rotation_down": 26.38, "downward_expansion": 6.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.812, 32.743455, 31.71176, 30.580721 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.82, "trend_reference": 29.263035, "distance_from_trend": 0.121551, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.065097, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.422929, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.219781, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.159939, "excess_performance": -0.027514, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.121551, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087078, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.422929, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048057, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.052198, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063846, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.159939, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.101437, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2068453, "relative_activity": 1.044458, "balance": 1.101437, "dry_up": 1.181871, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055081, "annualized_volatility": 0.195429, "from_high_reference": -0.038664, "from_low_reference": 0.483807 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.263035, "fair_value_reference": 23.065097, "structural_low": 24.430386, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.019728, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.007006, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.10605, "worst_return": -0.143385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.06068, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.069783, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.29204, "worst_return": -0.071499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.087492, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.035857, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.191122, "worst_return": -0.1366, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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64.232838, "energy": 61.182979, "activity_lines": [ 32.622333, 31.93907, 30.475884, 29.501298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.43, "volume": 1964665, "typical_volume": 1891391.95, "trend": 28.599115, "fair_value": 22.798637, "relative_strength": 12.489234, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.268057, "energy": 59.730781, "activity_lines": [ 32.876, 32.333182, 30.88723, 29.826325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.36, "volume": 2624755, "typical_volume": 1949636.45, "trend": 28.794501, "fair_value": 22.888725, "relative_strength": 10.38147, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.513458, "energy": 48.524683, "activity_lines": [ 32.728667, 32.467636, 31.162969, 30.068963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.94, "volume": 2704472, "typical_volume": 2021378.9, "trend": 29.033235, "fair_value": 22.978319, "relative_strength": 11.311367, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.857611, "energy": 47.070861, "activity_lines": [ 32.780667, 32.645364, 31.461128, 30.336414 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.82, "volume": 2068453, "typical_volume": 1980407.65, "trend": 29.263035, "fair_value": 23.065097, "relative_strength": 5.219781, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.998472, "energy": 44.442113, "activity_lines": [ 32.812, 32.743455, 31.71176, 30.580721 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }