{ "ticker": { "uuid": "995437bf-a8f5-49dc-a8bf-8f3d71e4429d", "symbol": "FGBL", "name": "First Trust Global Equity Income UCITS ETF Class A USD", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.274, "architecture_energy": 93.854, "architecture_maturity": 41.117, "architecture_confidence": 77.859, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.77, "rotation_up": 87.48, "upward_expansion": 99.74, "deceleration": 39.09, "rotation_down": 8.62, "downward_expansion": 21.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 88.572669, 87.169819, 85.209763, 83.91013 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 89.550003, "trend_reference": 82.234334, "distance_from_trend": 0.088961, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.894199, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.379938, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.965964, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.117838, "excess_performance": 0.064527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088961, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054431, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.379938, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066899, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.07966, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025347, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117838, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 48.452804, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7072, "relative_activity": 3.310861, "balance": 48.452804, "dry_up": 1.999649, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01584, "annualized_volatility": 0.085561, "from_high_reference": -0.023446, "from_low_reference": 0.327453 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 82.234334, "fair_value_reference": 64.894199, "structural_low": 78.089996, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.014166, "positive_rate": 0.74359, "directional_follow_through": 0.74359, "median_excess_return": 0.011704, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.05841, "worst_return": -0.082427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.053063, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.028051, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.081387, "worst_return": -0.030395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.066298, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.091451, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": 0.029099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 85.893333, 84.828546, 83.426715, 82.432323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 88.480003, "volume": 5110, "typical_volume": 1716.95, "trend": 81.305667, "fair_value": 64.411571, "relative_strength": 11.753566, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.319704, "energy": 96.721909, "activity_lines": [ 86.946668, 85.65291, 84.02181, 82.926882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 88.760002, "volume": 2112, "typical_volume": 1798.15, "trend": 81.764001, "fair_value": 64.649776, "relative_strength": 9.942376, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.742669, "energy": 93.626294, "activity_lines": [ 87.779335, 86.397274, 84.600953, 83.407807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 89.550003, "volume": 7072, "typical_volume": 2136.0, "trend": 82.234334, "fair_value": 64.894199, "relative_strength": 7.965964, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.274403, "energy": 93.853609, "activity_lines": [ 88.572669, 87.169819, 85.209763, 83.91013 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }