{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99554b75-a06c-48e7-a5e5-a87b73ba835d", "symbol": "300237", "name": "Shandong Meichen Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.999, "architecture_energy": 38.909, "architecture_maturity": 93.555, "architecture_confidence": 60.012, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.2, "rotation_up": 24.91, "upward_expansion": 17.17, "deceleration": 66.85, "rotation_down": 40.78, "downward_expansion": 64.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.937333, 1.930545, 2.052905, 2.145806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.0, "trend_reference": 2.264, "distance_from_trend": -0.116608, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.034167, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.016796, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.403728, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.174066, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116608, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107021, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.016796, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157321, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224037, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005676, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.225098, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70754450, "relative_activity": 0.826488, "balance": 1.225098, "dry_up": 0.940946, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088077, "annualized_volatility": 0.386941, "from_high_reference": -0.512195, "from_low_reference": 0.183432 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.264, "fair_value_reference": 2.034167, "structural_low": 1.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.020605, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.017602, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.368421, "worst_return": -0.156716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.004461, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 1.224806, "worst_return": -0.165289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.029289, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.197241, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.824818, "worst_return": -0.127273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.221482, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.170152, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.693431, "worst_return": -0.016, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.261905, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068421, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064171, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067358, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052239, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.708029, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097938, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.244131, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133603, 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"activity_lines": [ 1.904667, 2.029455, 2.161095, 2.247441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.97, "volume": 110723257, "typical_volume": 94073105.25, "trend": 2.339, "fair_value": 2.035513, "relative_strength": -21.436303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.096574, "energy": 72.501074, "activity_lines": [ 1.917333, 1.999636, 2.133286, 2.222022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.83, "volume": 72711053, "typical_volume": 90545321.1, "trend": 2.309, "fair_value": 2.034936, "relative_strength": -26.93531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.973126, "energy": 59.396572, "activity_lines": [ 1.891333, 1.950545, 2.095286, 2.189183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.92, "volume": 68023320, "typical_volume": 88063588.75, "trend": 2.283333, "fair_value": 2.034808, "relative_strength": -21.858835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.055319, "energy": 49.767388, "activity_lines": [ 1.908, 1.928727, 2.069, 2.164086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.0, "volume": 70754450, "typical_volume": 85608540.8, "trend": 2.264, "fair_value": 2.034167, "relative_strength": -22.403728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.998904, "energy": 38.909173, "activity_lines": [ 1.937333, 1.930545, 2.052905, 2.145806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }