{ "ticker": { "uuid": "995df272-09f2-4ac5-b3fa-b557aef52150", "symbol": "MUSRI", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI EMU SRI PAB UCITS ETF Capitalisation", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.474, "architecture_energy": 75.56, "architecture_maturity": 47.136, "architecture_confidence": 80.942, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 66.67, "upward_expansion": 88.79, "deceleration": 52.1, "rotation_down": 25.81, "downward_expansion": 13.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.159466, 19.039636, 18.575847, 18.212994 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 19.469999, "trend_reference": 17.828867, "distance_from_trend": 0.092049, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.273756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.274735, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.109468, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.123356, "excess_performance": -0.047536, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092049, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044048, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.274735, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097623, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031095, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047001, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123356, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.210447, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60235, "relative_activity": 7.285625, "balance": 6.210447, "dry_up": 2.436877, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016522, "annualized_volatility": 0.149067, "from_high_reference": -0.000513, "from_low_reference": 0.236504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.828867, "fair_value_reference": 15.273756, "structural_low": 16.216, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.003703, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.003475, "regime_survival": 0.694444, "best_return": 0.058824, "worst_return": -0.146829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.033261, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.024843, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.103552, "worst_return": -0.031441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.054873, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.064671, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.100627, "worst_return": -0.150801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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17.453067, "fair_value": 15.075538, "relative_strength": -4.18959, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.642752, "energy": 93.644668, "activity_lines": [ 18.846533, 18.471818, 17.957276, 17.73569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.898001, "volume": 4284, "typical_volume": 5540.15, "trend": 17.53, "fair_value": 15.114256, "relative_strength": -4.520047, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.180378, "energy": 87.848071, "activity_lines": [ 18.914267, 18.610073, 18.0756, 17.828912 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.018, "volume": 3403, "typical_volume": 5431.55, "trend": 17.605, "fair_value": 15.153333, "relative_strength": -2.408204, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.247718, "energy": 84.549646, "activity_lines": [ 18.9664, 18.739782, 18.200448, 17.924912 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.02, "volume": 7750, "typical_volume": 5190.7, "trend": 17.681267, "fair_value": 15.190731, "relative_strength": -2.105589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.667397, "energy": 72.853751, "activity_lines": [ 18.9888, 18.840546, 18.321105, 18.016202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.011999, "volume": 9201, "typical_volume": 5257.95, "trend": 17.750467, "fair_value": 15.230385, "relative_strength": -2.700883, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.434243, "energy": 65.19415, "activity_lines": [ 19.004666, 18.908473, 18.431752, 18.102056 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.469999, "volume": 60235, "typical_volume": 8267.65, "trend": 17.828867, "fair_value": 15.273756, "relative_strength": -3.109468, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.473862, "energy": 75.559896, "activity_lines": [ 19.159466, 19.039636, 18.575847, 18.212994 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }