{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9967b624-30ed-4f55-8afc-1fb7b2d4c3a5", "symbol": "SKO", "name": "Serko Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.124, "architecture_energy": 32.386, "architecture_maturity": 99.344, "architecture_confidence": 62.877, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.82, "rotation_up": 29.01, "upward_expansion": 18.11, "deceleration": 64.12, "rotation_down": 41.83, "downward_expansion": 68.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.5, 1.486818, 1.531405, 1.621194 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.69, "trend_reference": 1.837333, "distance_from_trend": -0.080189, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.148269, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.463197, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.386475, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.357414, "excess_performance": -0.385688, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080189, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191848, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.463197, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058557, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.263865, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121179, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.357414, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.228545, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 286141, "relative_activity": 0.800843, "balance": 1.228545, "dry_up": 1.513147, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082157, "annualized_volatility": 0.60329, "from_high_reference": -0.484756, "from_low_reference": 0.330709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.837333, "fair_value_reference": 3.148269, "structural_low": 1.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.04, "positive_rate": 0.324324, "directional_follow_through": 0.675676, "median_excess_return": -0.048451, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.560976, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.150794, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.142531, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.569038, "worst_return": -0.321429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.241645, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.270733, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.471429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.225381, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.248577, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.8, "worst_return": -0.678571, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017588, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01626, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051282, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014837, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032353, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.023333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.132353, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073359, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013289, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108475, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081818, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.115183, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.8, "volume": 171788, "typical_volume": 730963.7, "trend": 2.971, "fair_value": 4.872564, "relative_strength": 31.282662, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 1.45, "volume": 108605, "typical_volume": 319574.3, "trend": 2.047, "fair_value": 3.212564, "relative_strength": -39.873745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.180308, "energy": 66.594688, "activity_lines": [ 1.490667, 1.529909, 1.591881, 1.751172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.36, "volume": 159810, "typical_volume": 288232.85, "trend": 1.994, "fair_value": 3.195385, "relative_strength": -42.414748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.338332, "energy": 78.872492, "activity_lines": [ 1.437667, 1.495455, 1.562595, 1.706849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.32, "volume": 1344795, "typical_volume": 348558.8, "trend": 1.937667, "fair_value": 3.178333, "relative_strength": -43.627158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.474618, "energy": 78.837077, "activity_lines": [ 1.385333, 1.457909, 1.532643, 1.663366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.48, "volume": 371842, "typical_volume": 357766.05, "trend": 1.886, "fair_value": 3.162756, "relative_strength": -35.625076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.974161, "energy": 58.506128, "activity_lines": [ 1.407333, 1.451818, 1.520738, 1.633839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.69, "volume": 286141, "typical_volume": 357299.8, "trend": 1.837333, "fair_value": 3.148269, "relative_strength": -26.386475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.124437, "energy": 32.38556, "activity_lines": [ 1.5, 1.486818, 1.531405, 1.621194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }