{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99718c7b-fbce-4ef9-b7ed-fb6ef0a5016c", "symbol": "FGNX", "name": "Fundamental Global Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.679, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.164, "architecture_energy": 17.052, "architecture_maturity": 39.621, "architecture_confidence": 59.68, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.38, "rotation_up": 37.34, "upward_expansion": 25.68, "deceleration": 41.23, "rotation_down": 24.06, "downward_expansion": 50.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.616667, 6.168727, 6.325857, 6.515441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6.74, "trend_reference": 7.449667, "distance_from_trend": -0.095262, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 95.711514, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.92958, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -66.574556, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.319192, "excess_performance": -0.506646, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095262, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280642, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.92958, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011101, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.665746, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198061, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.319192, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.21106, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 553808, "relative_activity": 0.992516, "balance": 1.21106, "dry_up": 1.119599, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.238961, "annualized_volatility": 0.962218, "from_high_reference": -0.94765, "from_low_reference": 0.614371 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.449667, "fair_value_reference": 95.711514, "structural_low": 4.175, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.10297, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.097798, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.233161, "worst_return": -0.579286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.313333, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.361641, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.337838, "worst_return": -0.81213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.427609, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.581096, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.067117, "worst_return": -0.856016, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 5.402667, 5.844909, 6.160476, 6.749419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.55, "volume": 674354, "typical_volume": 535706.15, "trend": 8.065, "fair_value": 98.105168, "relative_strength": -74.359412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.049101, "energy": 34.385597, "activity_lines": [ 5.782, 5.898182, 6.187571, 6.634366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.25, "volume": 656182, "typical_volume": 546030.25, "trend": 7.768333, "fair_value": 96.934335, "relative_strength": -65.856648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.117444, "energy": 10.716759, "activity_lines": [ 6.336, 6.074727, 6.281952, 6.581785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.74, "volume": 553808, "typical_volume": 557983.9, "trend": 7.449667, "fair_value": 95.711514, "relative_strength": -66.574556, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.164278, "energy": 17.052145, "activity_lines": [ 6.616667, 6.168727, 6.325857, 6.515441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }