{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99725f8a-e750-4707-bfbe-b5b557fe6cdd", "symbol": "1220", "name": "Tai Roun Products Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.03, "architecture_energy": 69.541, "architecture_maturity": 36.082, "architecture_confidence": 94.235, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 20.29, "upward_expansion": 13.91, "deceleration": 42.04, "rotation_down": 65.82, "downward_expansion": 89.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.156667, 11.260686, 11.453872, 11.680311 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.0, "trend_reference": 11.971287, "distance_from_trend": -0.081135, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.413957, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.179959, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.884428, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.118391, "excess_performance": -0.559763, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081135, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0274, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.179959, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047965, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.368844, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011737, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.118391, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.745996, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 436103, "relative_activity": 0.911233, "balance": 0.745996, "dry_up": 0.741672, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028309, "annualized_volatility": 0.128768, "from_high_reference": -0.197389, "from_low_reference": 0.004566 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.971287, "fair_value_reference": 13.413957, "structural_low": 10.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.005492, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.037263, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.062271, "worst_return": -0.093023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.028052, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.117769, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.028777, "worst_return": -0.066964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.035011, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.191856, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.086379, "worst_return": -0.055323, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.791553, "energy": 46.517654, "activity_lines": [ 11.398363, 11.435072, 11.650397, 11.861594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.2, "volume": 403865, "typical_volume": 512624.5, "trend": 12.053304, "fair_value": 13.442572, "relative_strength": -33.786246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.684283, "energy": 53.316767, "activity_lines": [ 11.332456, 11.384944, 11.586274, 11.804113 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.15, "volume": 305968, "typical_volume": 489819.65, "trend": 12.015614, "fair_value": 13.427141, "relative_strength": -34.739865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.176574, "energy": 55.180645, "activity_lines": [ 11.253158, 11.333764, 11.524173, 11.745835 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.0, "volume": 436103, "typical_volume": 478585.45, "trend": 11.971287, "fair_value": 13.413957, "relative_strength": -36.884428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.030358, "energy": 69.541237, "activity_lines": [ 11.156667, 11.260686, 11.453872, 11.680311 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }