{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9972d0b6-c188-4ac1-b353-2dfe7276618d", "symbol": "STAI", "name": "Leverage Shares 3x Short Taiwan ETC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.025, "architecture_energy": 32.63, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 49.128, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.01, "rotation_up": 46.48, "upward_expansion": 31.78, "deceleration": 47.33, "rotation_down": 21.74, "downward_expansion": 53.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.232423, 0.195738, 0.190317, 0.243535 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.2084, "trend_reference": 0.32705, "distance_from_trend": -0.362789, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.587017, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.919444, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -67.682201, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.623827, "excess_performance": -0.675062, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.362789, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.401628, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.919444, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022852, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.676822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137328, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.623827, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.761759, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42, "relative_activity": 0.001019, "balance": 0.761759, "dry_up": 0.007924, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.227973, "annualized_volatility": 1.632954, "from_high_reference": -0.834274, "from_low_reference": 0.989499 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.32705, "fair_value_reference": 2.587017, "structural_low": 0.10475, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.097421, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.099868, "regime_survival": 0.964286, "best_return": 1.46697, "worst_return": -0.533981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.275164, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.323488, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.006815, "worst_return": -0.638137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.444932, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.5255, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.006143, "worst_return": -0.835468, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -70.062806, "energy": 87.573587, "activity_lines": [ 0.114, 0.12745, 0.195249, 0.274739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.27075, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 42504.6, "trend": 0.376317, "fair_value": 2.703963, "relative_strength": -60.927, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.748753, "energy": 52.908674, "activity_lines": [ 0.16525, 0.150855, 0.19469, 0.266648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.2508, "volume": 428, "typical_volume": 41452.4, "trend": 0.358143, "fair_value": 2.669249, "relative_strength": -63.119502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.841224, "energy": 34.281602, "activity_lines": [ 0.20055, 0.168964, 0.192971, 0.258551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.2598, "volume": 829, "typical_volume": 41369.1, "trend": 0.342803, "fair_value": 2.629832, "relative_strength": -60.904043, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.150671, "energy": 35.032041, "activity_lines": [ 0.229447, 0.187867, 0.193453, 0.252206 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2084, "volume": 42, "typical_volume": 41204.7, "trend": 0.32705, "fair_value": 2.587017, "relative_strength": -67.682201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.024962, "energy": 32.630437, "activity_lines": [ 0.232423, 0.195738, 0.190317, 0.243535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }