{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99766f9d-a1cb-4a42-8227-28ef45a03c4a", "symbol": "GRID", "name": "FIRST TRUST NASDAQ CLEAN EDGE SMART GRID INFRASTRUCTURE INDEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.461, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.945, "architecture_energy": 14.623, "architecture_maturity": 45.196, "architecture_confidence": 88.533, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.69, "rotation_up": 21.62, "upward_expansion": 42.86, "deceleration": 81.45, "rotation_down": 37.57, "downward_expansion": 34.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 181.485333, 182.871687, 185.161861, 182.636226 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 186.43, "trend_reference": 178.465983, "distance_from_trend": 0.044625, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 131.381354, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.418999, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.778665, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.091869, "excess_performance": -0.095584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044625, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062401, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.418999, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162806, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017787, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081236, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091869, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.485414, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5263808, "relative_activity": 1.448791, "balance": 1.485414, "dry_up": 0.925181, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05308, "annualized_volatility": 0.214871, "from_high_reference": -0.064102, "from_low_reference": 0.34543 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 178.465983, "fair_value_reference": 131.381354, "structural_low": 156.7351, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.001472, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.009738, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.169025, "worst_return": -0.082822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.061017, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.052715, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.160564, "worst_return": -0.075764, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.094588, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.020811, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.220114, "worst_return": 0.012773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 16.36415, "activity_lines": [ 183.013998, 185.719307, 185.431399, 181.787189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 177.4, "volume": 2252517, "typical_volume": 3381630.9, "trend": 176.662527, "fair_value": 130.291159, "relative_strength": -1.131345, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.445306, "energy": 14.929276, "activity_lines": [ 180.422667, 183.864455, 185.052471, 181.883491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 179.35, "volume": 3350490, "typical_volume": 3460673.95, "trend": 177.450086, "fair_value": 130.807545, "relative_strength": -0.634849, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.40872, "energy": 16.200008, "activity_lines": [ 179.582, 182.611812, 184.803863, 182.056877 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 186.43, "volume": 5263808, "typical_volume": 3633242.45, "trend": 178.465983, "fair_value": 131.381354, "relative_strength": -1.778665, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.945128, "energy": 14.623428, "activity_lines": [ 181.485333, 182.871687, 185.161861, 182.636226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }