{ "ticker": { "uuid": "997724b6-28d4-4901-b8c1-9e58036347e8", "symbol": "5NV", "name": "Chasen Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.769, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.191, "architecture_energy": 28.627, "architecture_maturity": 38.873, "architecture_confidence": 59.078, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.71, "rotation_up": 14.54, "upward_expansion": 21.14, "deceleration": 64.47, "rotation_down": 62.03, "downward_expansion": 39.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.104933, 0.111764, 0.121567, 0.114873 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.106, "trend_reference": 0.1055, "distance_from_trend": 0.004739, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.073616, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.439913, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.171534, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.308642, "excess_performance": 0.153807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004739, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142187, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.439913, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.537443, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051715, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.564822, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.308642, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.781175, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16639600, "relative_activity": 0.696013, "balance": 0.781175, "dry_up": 1.241194, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184325, "annualized_volatility": 0.734148, "from_high_reference": -0.43617, "from_low_reference": 0.606061 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1055, "fair_value_reference": 0.073616, "structural_low": 0.074, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.006944, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020667, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.141181, "worst_return": -0.10092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013025, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.089841, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.211772, "worst_return": -0.067568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.11771, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.019156, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.941176, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014085, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.123288, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.290133, "energy": 29.050787, "activity_lines": [ 0.109667, 0.127964, 0.124281, 0.114731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.107, "volume": 24361200, "typical_volume": 22580670.0, "trend": 0.1044, "fair_value": 0.072659, "relative_strength": -1.953293, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.06819, "energy": 24.858376, "activity_lines": [ 0.1068, 0.122073, 0.123695, 0.114951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.102, "volume": 18968000, "typical_volume": 23313430.0, "trend": 0.1048, "fair_value": 0.073115, "relative_strength": -7.383514, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.208869, "energy": 25.648773, "activity_lines": [ 0.104867, 0.116145, 0.1225, 0.114796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.106, "volume": 16639600, "typical_volume": 23907040.0, "trend": 0.1055, "fair_value": 0.073616, "relative_strength": -5.171534, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.190809, "energy": 28.627471, "activity_lines": [ 0.104933, 0.111764, 0.121567, 0.114873 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }