{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9980cb0f-68a3-44ce-be85-87d49aca38cf", "symbol": "601199", "name": "Jiangsu Jiangnan Water Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 81.444, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.258, "architecture_energy": 27.413, "architecture_maturity": 29.426, "architecture_confidence": 89.666, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.43, "rotation_up": 24.4, "upward_expansion": 11.01, "deceleration": 36.2, "rotation_down": 45.63, "downward_expansion": 75.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.604, 5.643577, 5.664886, 5.705088 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.51, "trend_reference": 5.756499, "distance_from_trend": -0.042821, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.343567, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.031146, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.937751, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.069257, "excess_performance": -0.026053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042821, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006865, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.031146, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106237, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039378, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034262, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069257, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.684175, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68676219, "relative_activity": 1.043524, "balance": 0.684175, "dry_up": 1.502206, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085284, "annualized_volatility": 0.368995, "from_high_reference": -0.178182, "from_low_reference": 0.081939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.756499, "fair_value_reference": 5.343567, "structural_low": 5.092708, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.028101, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": 0.012085, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.356631, "worst_return": -0.086743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.047073, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.054576, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.372672, "worst_return": -0.225399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.162863, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.015653, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.740053, "worst_return": -0.32374, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059413, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0217, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00703, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051786, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": 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5.723624, 5.75398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.4, "volume": 136124143, "typical_volume": 64368155.15, "trend": 5.760166, "fair_value": 5.351701, "relative_strength": -3.055209, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.785545, "energy": 15.689288, "activity_lines": [ 5.699333, 5.682626, 5.690409, 5.730163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.62, "volume": 53753901, "typical_volume": 64747765.0, "trend": 5.758499, "fair_value": 5.346982, "relative_strength": 0.536863, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.346262, "energy": 11.555047, "activity_lines": [ 5.674667, 5.670821, 5.68191, 5.72112 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.51, "volume": 68676219, "typical_volume": 65811818.65, "trend": 5.756499, "fair_value": 5.343567, "relative_strength": -3.937751, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.258141, "energy": 27.413376, "activity_lines": [ 5.604, 5.643577, 5.664886, 5.705088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }