{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9985a2bd-b2ba-46ed-a082-6735c8c3f3bb", "symbol": "600496", "name": "Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group) Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.855, "architecture_energy": 52.069, "architecture_maturity": 62.74, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.69, "rotation_up": 25.87, "upward_expansion": 8.63, "deceleration": 58.11, "rotation_down": 52.48, "downward_expansion": 81.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.246667, 3.269869, 3.455935, 3.632819 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.28, "trend_reference": 3.897182, "distance_from_trend": -0.158366, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.250928, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.008943, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.39574, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.309474, "excess_performance": -0.26627, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158366, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069683, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.008943, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206595, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153957, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106045, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.309474, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.124511, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 122900790, "relative_activity": 0.811512, "balance": 0.124511, "dry_up": 0.871951, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074439, "annualized_volatility": 0.279272, "from_high_reference": -0.31524, "from_low_reference": 0.071895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.897182, "fair_value_reference": 3.250928, "structural_low": 3.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.017199, "positive_rate": 0.344828, "directional_follow_through": 0.655172, "median_excess_return": -0.015655, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.202079, "worst_return": -0.15958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.017563, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044067, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.294355, "worst_return": -0.18136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02457, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.004463, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.16098, "worst_return": -0.175628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -18.696462, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.229389, "energy": 84.576203, "activity_lines": [ 3.273333, 3.460021, 3.643039, 3.823468 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.19, "volume": 136288200, "typical_volume": 150874994.65, "trend": 3.990849, "fair_value": 3.257713, "relative_strength": -14.335403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.04759, "energy": 83.364232, "activity_lines": [ 3.226, 3.385053, 3.582727, 3.769629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.18, "volume": 156189358, "typical_volume": 152826356.8, "trend": 3.953516, "fair_value": 3.255307, "relative_strength": -15.551019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.565055, "energy": 74.807366, "activity_lines": [ 3.204, 3.322427, 3.528225, 3.717316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.29, "volume": 112838354, "typical_volume": 151815311.55, "trend": 3.926182, "fair_value": 3.25318, "relative_strength": -12.897735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.119837, "energy": 58.693892, "activity_lines": [ 3.230667, 3.292258, 3.490008, 3.674508 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.28, "volume": 122900790, "typical_volume": 151446718.05, "trend": 3.897182, "fair_value": 3.250928, "relative_strength": -15.39574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.854651, "energy": 52.068551, "activity_lines": [ 3.246667, 3.269869, 3.455935, 3.632819 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }