{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "998f9fb6-62b5-4cac-8df0-121ffc41a1b7",
    "symbol": "NPKI",
    "name": "NPK International Inc.",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -32.804,
    "architecture_energy": 47.187,
    "architecture_maturity": 7.336,
    "architecture_confidence": 64.256,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 36.99,
        "rotation_up": 17.8,
        "upward_expansion": 17.8,
        "deceleration": 44.22,
        "rotation_down": 66.74,
        "downward_expansion": 61.8
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        13.562667,
        14.080364,
        14.492524,
        14.506839
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 13.48,
    "trend_reference": 14.443333,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.066697,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 9.227308,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.460881,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -9.034685,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.044649,
    "excess_performance": -0.170274,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.066697,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.051699,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.460881,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.31602,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.090347,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.230408,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.044649,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.900261,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4276535,
      "relative_activity": 0.967512,
      "balance": 0.900261,
      "dry_up": 0.974509,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.104342,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.347853,
      "from_high_reference": -0.18303,
      "from_low_reference": 0.45651
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 14.443333,
      "fair_value_reference": 9.227308,
      "structural_low": 11.8,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.0139,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.010238,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.122349,
        "worst_return": -0.193038,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.160994,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.121505,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.426724,
        "worst_return": -0.047468,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.330768,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.29203,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.62931,
        "worst_return": -0.29073,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.146327,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.053594,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.224138,
        "worst_return": 0.068515,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-07-12",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.078637,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.038889,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.01264,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.120226,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.077751,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.052972,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.051701,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.277017,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.045232,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.540909,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.028747,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.02381,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.12901,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 5.58,
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        "typical_volume": 2976104.55,
        "trend": 4.471,
        "fair_value": 3.34925,
        "relative_strength": 26.328977,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 72.044768,
        "energy": 55.539633,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "relative_strength": 22.221621,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 3697651.55,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 3736264.25,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": 6.171976,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.481004,
        "energy": 29.451794,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 4334970.7,
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        "fair_value": 8.955192,
        "relative_strength": 2.439278,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.786912,
        "energy": 20.613125,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 14.35,
        "volume": 4729604,
        "typical_volume": 4452788.55,
        "trend": 14.250667,
        "fair_value": 9.013462,
        "relative_strength": 0.808227,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 23.455454,
        "energy": 11.932689,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.84,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 14.34,
        "volume": 3317639,
        "typical_volume": 4328694.1,
        "trend": 14.320667,
        "fair_value": 9.071218,
        "relative_strength": 1.725677,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 10.355282,
        "energy": 9.185264,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.61,
          14.792909,
          14.855333,
          14.68772
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 14.35,
        "volume": 3285229,
        "typical_volume": 4234531.4,
        "trend": 14.395,
        "fair_value": 9.127949,
        "relative_strength": 1.871505,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 7.391569,
        "energy": 13.393333,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.426,
          14.691091,
          14.82219,
          14.689613
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 12.49,
        "volume": 6350452,
        "typical_volume": 4387473.6,
        "trend": 14.408,
        "fair_value": 9.174295,
        "relative_strength": -12.519651,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -37.23271,
        "energy": 44.435404,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.725333,
          14.268182,
          14.608143,
          14.56671
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 13.48,
        "volume": 4276535,
        "typical_volume": 4420135.55,
        "trend": 14.443333,
        "fair_value": 9.227308,
        "relative_strength": -9.034685,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -32.804026,
        "energy": 47.186503,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.562667,
          14.080364,
          14.492524,
          14.506839
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}