{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99929949-ddaa-49a8-b9fe-9c9425613c2d", "symbol": "JBI", "name": "Janus International Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.909, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.359, "architecture_energy": 6.189, "architecture_maturity": 21.702, "architecture_confidence": 66.994, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.51, "rotation_up": 21.3, "upward_expansion": 28.83, "deceleration": 46.14, "rotation_down": 29.86, "downward_expansion": 44.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.343333, 5.338727, 5.296905, 5.385742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.55, "trend_reference": 5.684667, "distance_from_trend": -0.023689, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.343141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.405981, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.630662, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.236589, "excess_performance": -0.362214, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023689, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064458, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.405981, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059867, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286307, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115759, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.236589, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.42084, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7133727, "relative_activity": 0.91257, "balance": 1.42084, "dry_up": 0.715803, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087387, "annualized_volatility": 0.486985, "from_high_reference": -0.486111, "from_low_reference": 0.302817 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.684667, "fair_value_reference": 9.343141, "structural_low": 4.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.031301, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.035647, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.203875, "worst_return": -0.192695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.036198, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.004631, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.348708, "worst_return": -0.303009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.039198, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.016265, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.356868, "worst_return": -0.132827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.179706, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.213587, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.03277, "worst_return": -0.309963, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.134165, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080908, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064171, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.360092, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192555, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.279251, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077878, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028083, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100367, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.107301, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016949, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077266, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.125817, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065259, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.7, "volume": 4829592, "typical_volume": 3792935.15, "trend": 10.148667, "fair_value": 11.077179, "relative_strength": 8.2201, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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5.372, 5.296909, 5.288952, 5.553011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.21, "volume": 6203965, "typical_volume": 8759270.05, "trend": 5.881333, "fair_value": 9.497051, "relative_strength": -35.046807, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.58458, "energy": 14.322025, "activity_lines": [ 5.332, 5.292182, 5.268333, 5.506258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.4, "volume": 5030068, "typical_volume": 8783037.25, "trend": 5.835333, "fair_value": 9.461667, "relative_strength": -30.774082, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.220743, "energy": 11.823525, "activity_lines": [ 5.348, 5.320909, 5.275333, 5.475204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.29, "volume": 4738787, "typical_volume": 8518674.8, "trend": 5.786, "fair_value": 9.4225, "relative_strength": -30.853329, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.95811, "energy": 16.552385, "activity_lines": [ 5.324, 5.326182, 5.279286, 5.440022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.13, "volume": 5479676, "typical_volume": 7962426.55, "trend": 5.735333, "fair_value": 9.384808, "relative_strength": -32.793353, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.409003, "energy": 21.616798, "activity_lines": [ 5.252, 5.293636, 5.268, 5.397699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.55, "volume": 7133727, "typical_volume": 7817181.25, "trend": 5.684667, "fair_value": 9.343141, "relative_strength": -28.630662, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.358924, "energy": 6.189454, "activity_lines": [ 5.343333, 5.338727, 5.296905, 5.385742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }