{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99935b0b-e3ee-4231-a141-77be07c33b8b", "symbol": "MIST", "name": "Milestone Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.865, "architecture_energy": 59.371, "architecture_maturity": 63.325, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 21.04, "upward_expansion": 11.76, "deceleration": 42.96, "rotation_down": 57.88, "downward_expansion": 85.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.178, 1.212273, 1.33869, 1.421108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.22, "trend_reference": 1.544, "distance_from_trend": -0.209845, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.806063, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.324498, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.843218, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.306818, "excess_performance": -0.494272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.209845, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176021, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.324498, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290611, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.398432, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269982, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.306818, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.477115, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4410746, "relative_activity": 0.539485, "balance": 0.477115, "dry_up": 0.655959, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141166, "annualized_volatility": 0.977973, "from_high_reference": -0.601307, "from_low_reference": 0.22 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.544, "fair_value_reference": 1.806063, "structural_low": 1.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": -0.007049, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.372483, "worst_return": -0.513889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.027422, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.085389, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.777478, "worst_return": -0.426667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.041096, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.068829, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.182473, "worst_return": -0.477204, "sufficient": true }, { 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1.314727, 1.460952, 1.537097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.185, "volume": 4466830, "typical_volume": 8520624.35, "trend": 1.633333, "fair_value": 1.843628, "relative_strength": -40.472044, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.771785, "energy": 63.894077, "activity_lines": [ 1.252333, 1.277545, 1.428357, 1.506097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.16, "volume": 3731502, "typical_volume": 8450572.6, "trend": 1.602667, "fair_value": 1.830871, "relative_strength": -40.339897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.224503, "energy": 67.26075, "activity_lines": [ 1.217333, 1.249182, 1.395881, 1.475559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.11, "volume": 8843000, "typical_volume": 8497777.8, "trend": 1.571333, "fair_value": 1.818563, "relative_strength": -42.845207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.930354, "energy": 72.091263, "activity_lines": [ 1.175, 1.218, 1.360643, 1.443774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.22, "volume": 4410746, "typical_volume": 8175848.45, "trend": 1.544, "fair_value": 1.806063, "relative_strength": -39.843218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.864574, "energy": 59.371438, "activity_lines": [ 1.178, 1.212273, 1.33869, 1.421108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }