{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99963293-0a36-4d0e-9c93-0d0087202c85", "symbol": "TXMD", "name": "TherapeuticsMD Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.8, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.287, "architecture_energy": 17.611, "architecture_maturity": 19.633, "architecture_confidence": 66.607, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.48, "rotation_up": 19.84, "upward_expansion": 0.92, "deceleration": 50.01, "rotation_down": 36.71, "downward_expansion": 69.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.051333, 2.056364, 2.062857, 2.087828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.07, "trend_reference": 2.139667, "distance_from_trend": -0.03256, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.820779, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.136876, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.679809, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.09607, "excess_performance": -0.283524, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03256, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049199, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.136876, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141329, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006798, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028761, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09607, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.338001, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65101, "relative_activity": 0.42154, "balance": 1.338001, "dry_up": 0.580081, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10489, "annualized_volatility": 0.357537, "from_high_reference": -0.298305, "from_low_reference": 1.090909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.139667, "fair_value_reference": 1.820779, "structural_low": 1.8, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.018018, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.044445, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.379845, "worst_return": -0.788349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.162505, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.255894, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.815126, "worst_return": -0.590486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.257511, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.329276, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.739496, "worst_return": -0.556015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.478908, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.698952, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.457746, "worst_return": -0.750431, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1067, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.237237, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145966, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.38172, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028169, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042735, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.09322, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.165719, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077519, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.323529, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013825, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061538, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.75, "volume": 129021, "typical_volume": 145979.6, "trend": 4.173667, "fair_value": 29.890321, "relative_strength": -38.390839, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.941991, "energy": 4.191943, "activity_lines": [ 2.071333, 2.070727, 2.087857, 2.110731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.11, "volume": 140044, "typical_volume": 155246.7, "trend": 2.099, "fair_value": 1.885715, "relative_strength": 5.810081, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.086352, "energy": 2.42281, "activity_lines": [ 2.082, 2.077091, 2.086095, 2.112237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.0, "volume": 195425, "typical_volume": 159523.6, "trend": 2.107333, "fair_value": 1.873344, "relative_strength": -1.908446, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.58854, "energy": 25.752453, "activity_lines": [ 2.058, 2.064909, 2.075048, 2.105849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.06, "volume": 98843, "typical_volume": 159994.45, "trend": 2.119333, "fair_value": 1.859626, "relative_strength": 4.769959, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.00965, "energy": 17.952355, "activity_lines": [ 2.053333, 2.064909, 2.071143, 2.102796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.06, "volume": 122165, "typical_volume": 159246.85, "trend": 2.13, "fair_value": 1.84719, "relative_strength": 5.820584, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.346366, "energy": 18.467097, "activity_lines": [ 2.058, 2.063455, 2.06819, 2.098968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.03, "volume": 72233, "typical_volume": 157692.1, "trend": 2.142667, "fair_value": 1.832895, "relative_strength": 3.055374, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.30486, "energy": 23.970192, "activity_lines": [ 2.045333, 2.055455, 2.063286, 2.092516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.07, "volume": 65101, "typical_volume": 154436.1, "trend": 2.139667, "fair_value": 1.820779, "relative_strength": -0.679809, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.287349, "energy": 17.610738, "activity_lines": [ 2.051333, 2.056364, 2.062857, 2.087828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }