{ "ticker": { "uuid": "999bbb33-cd31-456a-a752-0b9c47cef1df", "symbol": "SPOTN", "name": "Spotify Technology S.A.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 74.257, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.044, "architecture_energy": 9.613, "architecture_maturity": 9.482, "architecture_confidence": 69.602, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 70.46, "rotation_up": 26.38, "upward_expansion": 24.41, "deceleration": 40.97, "rotation_down": 21.97, "downward_expansion": 44.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 8460.377344, 8392.594727, 8369.596947, 8422.703863 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8420.0, "trend_reference": 8479.565999, "distance_from_trend": -0.007025, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8171.377678, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030426, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.703463, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.169412, "excess_performance": 0.224079, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007025, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084158, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030426, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095106, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177035, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.246495, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.169412, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.74925, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1026, "relative_activity": 0.354637, "balance": 10.74925, "dry_up": 0.164184, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054494, "annualized_volatility": 0.515799, "from_high_reference": -0.389855, "from_low_reference": 0.179602 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8479.565999, "fair_value_reference": 8171.377678, "structural_low": 7138.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.032091, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.044751, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.152468, "worst_return": -0.173145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.123095, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.177745, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.236947, "worst_return": -0.333197, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.242296, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.292448, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.568944, "worst_return": -0.445499, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.351559, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.504279, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.435136, "worst_return": -0.671576, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-08-12", "end": "2022-09-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173984, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-09-23", "end": "2023-01-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045867, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-03-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001713, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-03-17", "end": "2023-08-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.061565, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007804, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.169974, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02558, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 3.465427, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093427, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", 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20.912848, "activity_lines": [ 8307.39668, 8350.957085, 8355.632561, 8442.389646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8350.0, "volume": 484, "typical_volume": 2832.05, "trend": 8580.285986, "fair_value": 8092.723832, "relative_strength": -19.521638, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.388093, "energy": 12.94665, "activity_lines": [ 8347.921354, 8348.081268, 8341.486944, 8423.010443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8678.0, "volume": 316, "typical_volume": 2845.1, "trend": 8522.465999, "fair_value": 8132.43537, "relative_strength": -16.210955, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.267529, "energy": 7.124158, "activity_lines": [ 8468.366016, 8390.910724, 8366.822898, 8429.314573 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8420.0, "volume": 1026, "typical_volume": 2893.1, "trend": 8479.565999, "fair_value": 8171.377678, "relative_strength": -17.703463, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.04413, "energy": 9.613224, "activity_lines": [ 8460.377344, 8392.594727, 8369.596947, 8422.703863 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }