{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99a6156c-d9f9-4f15-bdbc-2429eaeb120d", "symbol": "VIR", "name": "Vir Biotechnology Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.796, "architecture_energy": 15.539, "architecture_maturity": 13.485, "architecture_confidence": 74.984, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.01, "rotation_up": 22.46, "upward_expansion": 45.24, "deceleration": 76.35, "rotation_down": 40.31, "downward_expansion": 34.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.908667, 9.183636, 9.274952, 9.214581 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.82, "trend_reference": 8.901667, "distance_from_trend": -0.009174, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.194872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.076283, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.643507, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.226704, "excess_performance": 0.03925, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009174, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138321, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.076283, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087473, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036435, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13976, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.226704, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.116046, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8668338, "relative_activity": 0.983293, "balance": 1.116046, "dry_up": 0.916557, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109378, "annualized_volatility": 0.479397, "from_high_reference": -0.243568, "from_low_reference": 1.122744 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.901667, "fair_value_reference": 8.194872, "structural_low": 7.01, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.038974, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.058663, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.166264, "worst_return": -0.415717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.239282, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.188445, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.261635, "worst_return": -0.437773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.006835, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.083954, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.756757, "worst_return": -0.691451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.527235, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.688646, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.39551, "worst_return": -0.672763, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.148822, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.147023, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.098664, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.09201, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.140496, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027439, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.174017, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.174627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119691, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 51.883338, "energy": 42.197409, "activity_lines": [ 9.798667, 9.484727, 9.462476, 9.152452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.43, "volume": 8510478, "typical_volume": 10430276.7, "trend": 8.622333, "fair_value": 8.290769, "relative_strength": 17.305074, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.436, "energy": 40.847123, "activity_lines": [ 9.755333, 9.506727, 9.464524, 9.212452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.69, "volume": 8324695, "typical_volume": 9539929.65, "trend": 8.712, "fair_value": 8.255833, "relative_strength": 9.364502, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.389161, "energy": 13.974991, "activity_lines": [ 9.410667, 9.388545, 9.394476, 9.216817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.66, "volume": 6816544, "typical_volume": 9041879.85, "trend": 8.802667, "fair_value": 8.224038, "relative_strength": 7.771579, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.217901, "energy": 8.008611, "activity_lines": [ 9.087333, 9.266727, 9.325667, 9.213462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.82, "volume": 8668338, "typical_volume": 8815618.7, "trend": 8.901667, "fair_value": 8.194872, "relative_strength": 3.643507, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.795841, "energy": 15.538938, "activity_lines": [ 8.908667, 9.183636, 9.274952, 9.214581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }