{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99a8dfac-d8b2-469b-bd12-86bac4537f4b", "symbol": "EMBC", "name": "Embecta Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.889, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.028, "architecture_energy": 69.953, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.019, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.44, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 35.26, "deceleration": 24.12, "rotation_down": 42.04, "downward_expansion": 73.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.751333, 3.547091, 4.022238, 5.156082 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.42, "trend_reference": 6.784004, "distance_from_trend": -0.348467, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.051641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.633245, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -60.401551, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.586002, "excess_performance": -0.773456, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.348467, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.307004, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.633245, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097675, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.604016, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125851, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.586002, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.812075, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10177171, "relative_activity": 1.064068, "balance": 1.812075, "dry_up": 0.722699, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103557, "annualized_volatility": 1.395136, "from_high_reference": -0.707022, "from_low_reference": 0.600459 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.784004, "fair_value_reference": 12.051641, "structural_low": 2.761707, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.01885, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.030677, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.468876, "worst_return": -0.639913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.095813, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.145655, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.307862, "worst_return": -0.60445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003157, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.236743, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.1147, "worst_return": -0.650866, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.562681, "energy": 61.154432, "activity_lines": [ 3.292667, 3.292372, 4.821552, 6.139579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.25, "volume": 6439491, "typical_volume": 9215963.65, "trend": 7.598923, "fair_value": 12.339286, "relative_strength": -71.217897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.70154, "energy": 59.832539, "activity_lines": [ 3.29, 3.281104, 4.538905, 5.841163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.29, "volume": 5718086, "typical_volume": 9265099.55, "trend": 7.315207, "fair_value": 12.239675, "relative_strength": -69.849989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.058527, "energy": 58.117913, "activity_lines": [ 3.290667, 3.284001, 4.293303, 5.563168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.64, "volume": 5313957, "typical_volume": 9324646.95, "trend": 7.054621, "fair_value": 12.141456, "relative_strength": -66.336094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.370188, "energy": 54.763066, "activity_lines": [ 3.396, 3.347636, 4.108428, 5.326058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.42, "volume": 10177171, "typical_volume": 9564397.65, "trend": 6.784004, "fair_value": 12.051641, "relative_strength": -60.401551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.027677, "energy": 69.95304, "activity_lines": [ 3.751333, 3.547091, 4.022238, 5.156082 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }