{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99b1742a-bed7-4875-9bb4-973d968bab75", "symbol": "ELD", "name": "Eldorado Gold Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 56.188, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 5.179, "architecture_energy": 4.403, "architecture_maturity": 43.596, "architecture_confidence": 69.278, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.35, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 27.07, "deceleration": 43.73, "rotation_down": 26.82, "downward_expansion": 51.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.968001, 45.158183, 44.765497, 46.092538 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 52.830002, "trend_reference": 48.919567, "distance_from_trend": 0.079936, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.047153, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.818767, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.885834, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.006618, "excess_performance": -0.12704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003899, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.818767, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058752, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038858, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021566, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006618, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.763746, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4023300, "relative_activity": 1.295476, "balance": 0.763746, "dry_up": 0.964499, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09749, "annualized_volatility": 0.756567, "from_high_reference": -0.238159, "from_low_reference": 0.781732 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.919567, "fair_value_reference": 29.047153, "structural_low": 38.080002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.050778, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.031349, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.233498, "worst_return": -0.195415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.173579, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.147626, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.568088, "worst_return": -0.206332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.187371, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.151224, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.594745, "worst_return": -0.069919, "sufficient": false 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20.587766, "activity_lines": [ 45.032667, 44.538861, 45.011783, 47.237177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.16, "volume": 2154900, "typical_volume": 3064850.0, "trend": 49.316179, "fair_value": 28.388487, "relative_strength": -19.777078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.329673, "energy": 36.272679, "activity_lines": [ 43.163333, 43.573685, 44.2912, 46.560888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.990002, "volume": 2969300, "typical_volume": 3065785.0, "trend": 49.140619, "fair_value": 28.595353, "relative_strength": -8.415201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.481872, "energy": 26.026152, "activity_lines": [ 43.484667, 43.803144, 44.241045, 46.28178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.310001, "volume": 2834100, "typical_volume": 3080510.0, "trend": 48.932631, "fair_value": 28.787279, "relative_strength": -13.676073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.86612, "energy": 34.708567, "activity_lines": [ 42.900668, 43.516639, 43.982985, 45.841095 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.830002, "volume": 4023300, "typical_volume": 3105655.0, "trend": 48.919567, "fair_value": 29.047153, "relative_strength": 3.885834, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.179239, "energy": 4.403424, "activity_lines": [ 45.968001, 45.158183, 44.765497, 46.092538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }