{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99b2b77e-eb02-48d3-978d-722f2a0fba3b", "symbol": "CAPU", "name": "Ossiam Shiller Barclays Cape US Sector Value TR 1C (EUR)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.946, "architecture_energy": 87.195, "architecture_maturity": 16.686, "architecture_confidence": 63.09, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.89, "rotation_up": 81.35, "upward_expansion": 95.64, "deceleration": 43.2, "rotation_down": 9.75, "downward_expansion": 19.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 1493.573348, 1478.004368, 1450.494198, 1436.89409 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1508.27002, "trend_reference": 1424.803333, "distance_from_trend": 0.058581, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1323.485255, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.13962, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.156073, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.066714, "excess_performance": -0.104177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058581, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018421, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.13962, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049808, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081561, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020656, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066714, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.297119, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1720, "relative_activity": 2.100507, "balance": 1.297119, "dry_up": 1.356476, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016622, "annualized_volatility": 0.094688, "from_high_reference": -0.006168, "from_low_reference": 0.132471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1424.803333, "fair_value_reference": 1323.485255, 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1418.616329, "fair_value": 1318.58455, "relative_strength": -6.602984, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.922312, "energy": 90.29565, "activity_lines": [ 1481.460001, 1460.683818, 1435.887767, 1427.122045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1483.890015, "volume": 982, "typical_volume": 777.85, "trend": 1422.076998, "fair_value": 1320.947627, "relative_strength": -7.214669, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.434261, "energy": 85.957513, "activity_lines": [ 1484.626676, 1467.801274, 1442.17791, 1431.33325 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1508.27002, "volume": 1720, "typical_volume": 818.85, "trend": 1424.803333, "fair_value": 1323.485255, "relative_strength": -8.156073, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.945512, "energy": 87.194869, "activity_lines": [ 1493.573348, 1478.004368, 1450.494198, 1436.89409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }