{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "99b3f68b-534b-4594-8633-c3e795d42630",
    "symbol": "FENY",
    "name": "FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUST MSCI ENERGY INDEX ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 78.979,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 52.166,
    "architecture_energy": 40.211,
    "architecture_maturity": 7.35,
    "architecture_confidence": 60.895,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 31.33,
        "rotation_up": 65.27,
        "upward_expansion": 74.03,
        "deceleration": 62.31,
        "rotation_down": 11.45,
        "downward_expansion": 5.36
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        31.525852
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 31.95,
    "trend_reference": 31.008444,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.030365,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 24.657637,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.295745,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 1.533516,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.098427,
    "excess_performance": -0.027198,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030365,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.077602,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.295745,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.007591,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015335,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04599,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.098427,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.675842,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 6565814,
      "relative_activity": 0.632103,
      "balance": 0.675842,
      "dry_up": 0.641176,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.048899,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.259622,
      "from_high_reference": -0.087329,
      "from_low_reference": 0.414784
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 31.008444,
      "fair_value_reference": 24.657637,
      "structural_low": 28.958697,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 29,
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        "positive_rate": 0.551724,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.551724,
        "median_excess_return": -0.016362,
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        "worst_return": -0.185785,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "worst_return": -0.135693,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.019351,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      {
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 13465812.9,
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        "direction": 19.188775,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 33.1,
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        "typical_volume": 11737534.1,
        "trend": 30.523547,
        "fair_value": 24.525647,
        "relative_strength": 10.703889,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 33.05,
        "volume": 8298701,
        "typical_volume": 10845603.05,
        "trend": 30.792557,
        "fair_value": 24.597569,
        "relative_strength": 8.980564,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.789123,
        "energy": 37.43112,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.302,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 31.95,
        "volume": 6565814,
        "typical_volume": 10387256.1,
        "trend": 31.008444,
        "fair_value": 24.657637,
        "relative_strength": 1.533516,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.165638,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}