{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99b6c8bc-d0fd-4583-ba44-8758ffa557c0", "symbol": "DOV", "name": "doValue S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.076, "architecture_energy": 24.553, "architecture_maturity": 40.704, "architecture_confidence": 58.607, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.07, "rotation_up": 17.95, "upward_expansion": 27.44, "deceleration": 54.25, "rotation_down": 53.82, "downward_expansion": 53.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.1344, 2.21, 2.205843, 2.186633 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.83, "trend_reference": 2.210685, "distance_from_trend": -0.172202, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.130907, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.701512, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.563565, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.206093, "excess_performance": -0.376985, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172202, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052375, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.701512, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036361, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.355636, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083709, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.206093, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.064097, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16325671, "relative_activity": 3.885986, "balance": 1.064097, "dry_up": 1.550027, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139821, "annualized_volatility": 0.64192, "from_high_reference": -0.433193, "from_low_reference": 0.051724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.210685, "fair_value_reference": 6.130907, "structural_low": 1.74, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.06152, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.153846, "median_excess_return": -0.054831, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.158163, "worst_return": -0.320911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.279677, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.245495, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.420408, "worst_return": -0.348309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.273006, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.27206, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.330613, "worst_return": 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"relative_strength": -23.897336, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.716276, "energy": 13.826977, "activity_lines": [ 2.290667, 2.285345, 2.22484, 2.210508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.308, "volume": 2677953, "typical_volume": 3598280.85, "trend": 2.244851, "fair_value": 6.26012, "relative_strength": -17.231129, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.087765, "energy": 15.649477, "activity_lines": [ 2.296933, 2.292436, 2.238681, 2.213397 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.83, "volume": 16325671, "typical_volume": 4201165.15, "trend": 2.210685, "fair_value": 6.130907, "relative_strength": -35.563565, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.075561, "energy": 24.552537, "activity_lines": [ 2.1344, 2.21, 2.205843, 2.186633 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }