{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99bd3251-7a20-46de-b097-9a70b7920665", "symbol": "BKHY", "name": "BNY MELLON HIGH YIELD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.767, "architecture_energy": 19.503, "architecture_maturity": 17.465, "architecture_confidence": 73.202, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.51, "rotation_up": 28.47, "upward_expansion": 52.86, "deceleration": 87.67, "rotation_down": 31.39, "downward_expansion": 21.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.072918, 47.100238, 47.09495, 47.01518 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 47.3202, "trend_reference": 46.948596, "distance_from_trend": 0.007915, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.141574, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096858, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.587803, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007259, "excess_performance": -0.118366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007915, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005143, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096858, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016273, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095878, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005293, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007259, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.732646, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 230237, "relative_activity": 2.555284, "balance": 0.732646, "dry_up": 1.268206, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006441, "annualized_volatility": 0.04033, "from_high_reference": -0.002525, "from_low_reference": 0.047641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.948596, "fair_value_reference": 43.141574, "structural_low": 45.906061, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.004497, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.016081, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.026175, "worst_return": -0.033035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012617, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.022827, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.059871, "worst_return": -0.057406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.030485, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.044995, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.070214, "worst_return": -0.112443, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 47.07276, "volume": 58860, "typical_volume": 346991.4, "trend": 46.913916, "fair_value": 42.956261, "relative_strength": -7.206003, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.596685, "energy": 21.073231, "activity_lines": [ 47.129637, 47.144801, 47.06861, 46.993954 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.846592, "volume": 95711, "typical_volume": 122225.95, "trend": 46.922785, "fair_value": 43.016467, "relative_strength": -6.893228, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.580976, "energy": 13.304748, "activity_lines": [ 47.02309, 47.096988, 47.061737, 46.989611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.931194, "volume": 72265, "typical_volume": 117712.3, "trend": 46.932278, "fair_value": 43.078059, "relative_strength": -7.461917, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.027313, "energy": 16.582339, "activity_lines": [ 46.97255, 47.062741, 47.061429, 46.990153 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.3202, "volume": 230237, "typical_volume": 90102.3, "trend": 46.948596, "fair_value": 43.141574, "relative_strength": -9.587803, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.766657, "energy": 19.502739, "activity_lines": [ 47.072918, 47.100238, 47.09495, 47.01518 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }