{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99bd8194-dfd7-4d63-8840-d63ee25d8351", "symbol": "PLEM", "name": "Amundi PEA Emergent EMEA (MSCI Emerging EMEA) ESG Transition UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.872, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.844, "architecture_energy": 13.897, "architecture_maturity": 21.889, "architecture_confidence": 61.188, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.51, "rotation_up": 32.9, "upward_expansion": 28.06, "deceleration": 66.14, "rotation_down": 39.09, "downward_expansion": 27.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.360999, 21.337872, 21.301062, 21.26549 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.049999, "trend_reference": 21.333766, "distance_from_trend": 0.033573, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.987508, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.225851, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.360396, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002443, "excess_performance": -0.055754, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033573, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01625, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.225851, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000296, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003604, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063001, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002443, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.333554, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35711, "relative_activity": 1.01988, "balance": 2.333554, "dry_up": 1.151924, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026395, "annualized_volatility": 0.201206, "from_high_reference": -0.02, "from_low_reference": 0.18932 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.333766, "fair_value_reference": 17.987508, "structural_low": 18.922001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.004722, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002907, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.050997, "worst_return": -0.057971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.012497, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.013664, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.052247, "worst_return": -0.078007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.01397, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.008175, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.102341, "worst_return": 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-14", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016842, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021679, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.17887, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093456, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049293, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": 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25280, "typical_volume": 48255.1, "trend": 21.261567, "fair_value": 17.829746, "relative_strength": 1.407773, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.325832, "energy": 26.280447, "activity_lines": [ 21.4716, 21.349527, 21.258662, 21.279589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.844999, "volume": 26667, "typical_volume": 46490.2, "trend": 21.273167, "fair_value": 17.868124, "relative_strength": -1.401602, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.001404, "energy": 10.869672, "activity_lines": [ 21.269, 21.268363, 21.228314, 21.252714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.004999, "volume": 64714, "typical_volume": 40865.6, "trend": 21.288366, "fair_value": 17.903008, "relative_strength": -1.149753, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.219421, "energy": 16.30423, "activity_lines": [ 21.146666, 21.226381, 21.220862, 21.235413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.01, "volume": 34246, "typical_volume": 38203.8, "trend": 21.305433, "fair_value": 17.940675, "relative_strength": -2.725249, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.621467, "energy": 26.363627, "activity_lines": [ 21.072, 21.186491, 21.213262, 21.217454 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.049999, "volume": 35711, "typical_volume": 35014.9, "trend": 21.333766, "fair_value": 17.987508, "relative_strength": -0.360396, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.844169, "energy": 13.897464, "activity_lines": [ 21.360999, 21.337872, 21.301062, 21.26549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }