{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99c14666-a622-4ddc-9312-cf26fba3951e", "symbol": "SMIG", "name": "BAHL & GAYNOR SMALL/MID CAP INCOME GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.599, "architecture_energy": 64.739, "architecture_maturity": 38.489, "architecture_confidence": 82.018, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 64.98, "upward_expansion": 87.53, "deceleration": 52.66, "rotation_down": 21.38, "downward_expansion": 11.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.32704, 33.088778, 32.422501, 31.860624 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 33.4, "trend_reference": 31.244432, "distance_from_trend": 0.06899, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.585594, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.210777, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.369168, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.078618, "excess_performance": -0.047007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06899, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047259, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.210777, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038793, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013692, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033308, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078618, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.679752, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1716952, "relative_activity": 1.374722, "balance": 1.679752, "dry_up": 0.987104, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021574, "annualized_volatility": 0.111551, "from_high_reference": -0.008019, "from_low_reference": 0.22055 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.244432, "fair_value_reference": 27.585594, "structural_low": 28.712542, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.006585, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.010089, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.060559, "worst_return": -0.057064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.007349, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.029612, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.093093, "worst_return": -0.038778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.063415, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.047724, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.101126, "worst_return": 0.004054, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": 2.339839, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.220712, "energy": 89.242916, "activity_lines": [ 33.057411, 32.588829, 31.84729, 31.402657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.447521, "volume": 749352, "typical_volume": 1224930.1, "trend": 30.968124, "fair_value": 27.454037, "relative_strength": 3.154589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.650566, "energy": 87.39829, "activity_lines": [ 33.258633, 32.813839, 32.065918, 31.572172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.15, "volume": 1395412, "typical_volume": 1227345.35, "trend": 31.110862, "fair_value": 27.519136, "relative_strength": 1.214919, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.621024, "energy": 78.621658, "activity_lines": [ 33.266451, 32.940789, 32.241033, 31.712938 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.4, "volume": 1716952, "typical_volume": 1248944.8, "trend": 31.244432, "fair_value": 27.585594, "relative_strength": -1.369168, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.598855, "energy": 64.739417, "activity_lines": [ 33.32704, 33.088778, 32.422501, 31.860624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }