{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99c35e25-a7e6-44e7-99dd-f5a7a0ce6056", "symbol": "603648", "name": "Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.356, "architecture_energy": 28.63, "architecture_maturity": 22.61, "architecture_confidence": 61.466, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.06, "rotation_up": 22.65, "upward_expansion": 9.88, "deceleration": 65.29, "rotation_down": 36.13, "downward_expansion": 64.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.994, 8.979091, 9.16819, 9.408 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.17, "trend_reference": 9.767, "distance_from_trend": -0.061124, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.382039, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.022601, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.071165, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.153278, "excess_performance": -0.110074, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061124, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052851, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.022601, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118497, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100712, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020978, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.153278, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.529255, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10689800, "relative_activity": 0.877641, "balance": 0.529255, "dry_up": 1.200353, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065682, "annualized_volatility": 0.228127, "from_high_reference": -0.247312, "from_low_reference": 0.110169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.767, "fair_value_reference": 9.382039, "structural_low": 8.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.004876, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.010894, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.065401, "worst_return": -0.164286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026882, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.079125, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.190928, "worst_return": -0.184637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.073952, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.073663, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183544, "worst_return": -0.134829, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0366, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004306, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065401, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.17004, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078876, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", 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"direction": -42.127105, "energy": 28.441466, "activity_lines": [ 9.126, 9.052364, 9.344429, 9.601398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.49, "volume": 15730600, "typical_volume": 12283296.7, "trend": 9.873667, "fair_value": 9.377531, "relative_strength": -14.988149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.828042, "energy": 35.705772, "activity_lines": [ 8.955333, 8.933818, 9.240714, 9.507892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.98, "volume": 13713400, "typical_volume": 12272417.8, "trend": 9.824667, "fair_value": 9.378869, "relative_strength": -10.043225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.175444, "energy": 28.87747, "activity_lines": [ 8.948667, 8.932909, 9.192286, 9.450237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.17, "volume": 10689800, "typical_volume": 12180150.3, "trend": 9.767, "fair_value": 9.382039, "relative_strength": -10.071165, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.355623, "energy": 28.629919, "activity_lines": [ 8.994, 8.979091, 9.16819, 9.408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }