{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "99c521da-dae2-4d87-9003-e08e644e4307",
    "symbol": "XTJL",
    "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Accelerated Plus ETF - July",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 64.3,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 81.282,
    "architecture_energy": 55.849,
    "architecture_maturity": 52.291,
    "architecture_confidence": 63.327,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.03,
        "rotation_up": 56.67,
        "upward_expansion": 78.55,
        "deceleration": 68.16,
        "rotation_down": 22.69,
        "downward_expansion": 7.55
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        41.48942,
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        41.028143,
        40.578922
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 42.26,
    "trend_reference": 40.050233,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.055175,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 34.220665,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234926,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.858697,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.076309,
    "excess_performance": -0.049315,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.055175,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.02286,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.234926,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004566,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.038587,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.006411,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.076309,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 19.986966,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 121690,
      "relative_activity": 2.686948,
      "balance": 19.986966,
      "dry_up": 0.726325,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.015568,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.08023,
      "from_high_reference": 0.0,
      "from_low_reference": 0.149497
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 40.050233,
      "fair_value_reference": 34.220665,
      "structural_low": 36.81,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 37,
        "median_return": 0.011257,
        "positive_rate": 0.783784,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.783784,
        "median_excess_return": -0.004494,
        "regime_survival": 0.891892,
        "best_return": 0.036667,
        "worst_return": -0.045435,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
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        "worst_return": -0.049704,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "median_excess_return": -0.015732,
        "regime_survival": 1.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.045909,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "worst_return": 0.145099,
        "sufficient": false
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        "end": "2023-04-07",
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      {
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 58378.8,
        "trend": 39.639997,
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        "relative_strength": -3.861064,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 58434.5,
        "trend": 39.732323,
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        "relative_strength": -4.082975,
        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 73.509629,
        "energy": 70.618271,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 40.9669,
        "volume": 3509,
        "typical_volume": 58356.2,
        "trend": 39.80638,
        "fair_value": 33.954807,
        "relative_strength": -3.381292,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.743425,
        "energy": 54.02795,
        "activity_lines": [
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          40.681788,
          40.270663
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 40.8007,
        "volume": 4043,
        "typical_volume": 40734.0,
        "trend": 39.866107,
        "fair_value": 34.037149,
        "relative_strength": -3.104637,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.165313,
        "energy": 37.776243,
        "activity_lines": [
          40.99442,
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          40.744976,
          40.334813
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 41.3376,
        "volume": 2337,
        "typical_volume": 40309.65,
        "trend": 39.947793,
        "fair_value": 34.125724,
        "relative_strength": -2.779402,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.564277,
        "energy": 44.268392,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.0965,
          41.069856,
          40.849485,
          40.429748
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 42.26,
        "volume": 121690,
        "typical_volume": 45289.3,
        "trend": 40.050233,
        "fair_value": 34.220665,
        "relative_strength": -3.858697,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.281705,
        "energy": 55.84947,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}