{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99c859fe-43b9-49c5-a1c8-b56a957cf16a", "symbol": "P40U", "name": "Starhill Global Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.636, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.645, "architecture_energy": 38.589, "architecture_maturity": 43.988, "architecture_confidence": 86.205, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.53, "rotation_up": 23.24, "upward_expansion": 4.78, "deceleration": 59.29, "rotation_down": 49.58, "downward_expansion": 78.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.531235, 0.532172, 0.537197, 0.541463 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.53, "trend_reference": 0.549106, "distance_from_trend": -0.034795, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.478132, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.108481, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.322703, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.061947, "excess_performance": -0.216782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034795, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017429, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.108481, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077587, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193227, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132559, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061947, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.859665, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13724800, "relative_activity": 2.163486, "balance": 0.859665, "dry_up": 1.485253, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022027, "annualized_volatility": 0.112215, "from_high_reference": -0.094017, "from_low_reference": 0.031197 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.549106, "fair_value_reference": 0.478132, "structural_low": 0.521708, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.009623, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.001093, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.071428, "worst_return": -0.020202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.063117, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.023715, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089109, "worst_return": 0.008706, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.015673, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005609, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.080756, "worst_return": -0.036529, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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-73.488443, "energy": 64.919904, "activity_lines": [ 0.532923, 0.53635, 0.54181, 0.546987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.526539, "volume": 3428200, "typical_volume": 6436745.0, "trend": 0.553069, "fair_value": 0.475941, "relative_strength": -18.201487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.697793, "energy": 69.397982, "activity_lines": [ 0.529898, 0.533937, 0.540037, 0.545208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.531369, "volume": 6142800, "typical_volume": 5736415.0, "trend": 0.551871, "fair_value": 0.476654, "relative_strength": -18.298373, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.383312, "energy": 68.849125, "activity_lines": [ 0.52938, 0.53292, 0.538907, 0.543808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5362, "volume": 14393000, "typical_volume": 6076500.0, "trend": 0.550673, "fair_value": 0.477426, "relative_strength": -17.767573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.871116, "energy": 44.55233, "activity_lines": [ 0.531047, 0.53303, 0.53835, 0.542797 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.53, "volume": 13724800, "typical_volume": 6343835.0, "trend": 0.549106, "fair_value": 0.478132, "relative_strength": -19.322703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.645027, "energy": 38.589362, "activity_lines": [ 0.531235, 0.532172, 0.537197, 0.541463 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }