{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99c99764-0464-4c9c-9eb6-30535e9464a2", "symbol": "000679", "name": "Dalian Friendship (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.069, "architecture_energy": 56.403, "architecture_maturity": 65.692, "architecture_confidence": 86.125, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.71, "rotation_up": 12.5, "upward_expansion": 10.85, "deceleration": 40.81, "rotation_down": 67.57, "downward_expansion": 86.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.698667, 5.937636, 6.258381, 6.44572 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.9, "trend_reference": 6.713333, "distance_from_trend": -0.121152, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.892436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.001284, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.182785, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.170183, "excess_performance": -0.177583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121152, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098317, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.001284, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201078, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241828, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019055, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170183, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.914664, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26781600, "relative_activity": 0.824105, "balance": 0.914664, "dry_up": 1.462664, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13442, "annualized_volatility": 0.547626, "from_high_reference": -0.441288, "from_low_reference": 0.206544 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.713333, "fair_value_reference": 5.892436, "structural_low": 4.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.008021, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027396, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.283019, "worst_return": -0.275058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.140127, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.078339, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.089641, "worst_return": -0.222376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.247326, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.187717, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.189243, "worst_return": -0.309463, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.348148, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.274314, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039574, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004918, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", 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"typical_volume": 30730203.9, "trend": 6.947333, "fair_value": 5.890641, "relative_strength": -22.543971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.744198, "energy": 56.20948, "activity_lines": [ 6.194667, 6.358, 6.548571, 6.694344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.14, "volume": 54887057, "typical_volume": 31957974.9, "trend": 6.822333, "fair_value": 5.89, "relative_strength": -33.613714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.967542, "energy": 70.814486, "activity_lines": [ 5.768, 6.113636, 6.403095, 6.577742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.63, "volume": 39026666, "typical_volume": 32338042.45, "trend": 6.754, "fair_value": 5.892756, "relative_strength": -25.10115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.928893, "energy": 66.207575, "activity_lines": [ 5.667333, 5.990727, 6.314667, 6.500817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.9, "volume": 26781600, "typical_volume": 32497819.95, "trend": 6.713333, "fair_value": 5.892436, "relative_strength": -24.182785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.069472, "energy": 56.402643, "activity_lines": [ 5.698667, 5.937636, 6.258381, 6.44572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }