{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99cadec9-4a04-45cf-a938-55b7e263a029", "symbol": "SRZ", "name": "Stellar Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.416, "architecture_energy": 25.792, "architecture_maturity": 17.921, "architecture_confidence": 75.346, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.99, "rotation_up": 58.34, "upward_expansion": 39.44, "deceleration": 36.05, "rotation_down": 21.24, "downward_expansion": 19.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.356333, 0.342, 0.339476, 0.339527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.385, "trend_reference": 0.3415, "distance_from_trend": 0.127379, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.199359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.93119, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 20.090672, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.203125, "excess_performance": 0.139419, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.127379, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069415, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.93119, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105981, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.200907, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064614, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.203125, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.5415, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2306597, "relative_activity": 1.197357, "balance": 2.5415, "dry_up": 0.879912, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097902, "annualized_volatility": 0.669805, "from_high_reference": -0.163043, "from_low_reference": 1.264706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.3415, "fair_value_reference": 0.199359, "structural_low": 0.27, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.026457, "regime_survival": 0.64, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.053613, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.036814, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.344828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.1125, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.186308, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.517241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.307692, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.228567, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.461538, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.238095, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.277778, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.277778, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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0.336258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.32, "volume": 2009751, "typical_volume": 2387228.25, "trend": 0.3335, "fair_value": 0.19359, "relative_strength": 9.630108, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.216202, "energy": 39.335959, "activity_lines": [ 0.318667, 0.328818, 0.332643, 0.335495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.34, "volume": 1381871, "typical_volume": 2171728.95, "trend": 0.3365, "fair_value": 0.194936, "relative_strength": 15.393621, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.135195, "energy": 37.002933, "activity_lines": [ 0.325, 0.329636, 0.332619, 0.335914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.32, "volume": 474275, "typical_volume": 2024017.9, "trend": 0.337833, "fair_value": 0.196218, "relative_strength": 7.934321, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.944255, "energy": 23.993101, "activity_lines": [ 0.324, 0.326636, 0.331119, 0.334849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.365, "volume": 2617538, "typical_volume": 2027653.8, "trend": 0.339667, "fair_value": 0.197724, "relative_strength": 18.885054, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.60939, "energy": 9.216972, "activity_lines": [ 0.339, 0.332545, 0.334381, 0.336602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.385, "volume": 2306597, "typical_volume": 1926407.8, "trend": 0.3415, "fair_value": 0.199359, "relative_strength": 20.090672, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.416176, "energy": 25.792333, "activity_lines": [ 0.356333, 0.342, 0.339476, 0.339527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }