{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99ce1237-6bac-4c03-8537-e03b50b6fd78", "symbol": "I500", "name": "iShares S&P 500 Swap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.864, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.893, "architecture_energy": 65.368, "architecture_maturity": 87.957, "architecture_confidence": 61.951, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.55, "rotation_up": 52.81, "upward_expansion": 82.39, "deceleration": 71.36, "rotation_down": 28.99, "downward_expansion": 11.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.017467, 10.976036, 10.819114, 10.573353 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.242, "trend_reference": 10.282533, "distance_from_trend": 0.09331, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.361679, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.200853, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.114178, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.156822, "excess_performance": -0.014069, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09331, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041417, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.200853, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054411, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031142, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008399, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.156822, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.218301, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 366225, "relative_activity": 1.52281, "balance": 1.218301, "dry_up": 1.923172, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018926, "annualized_volatility": 0.116553, "from_high_reference": -0.004957, "from_low_reference": 0.244961 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.282533, "fair_value_reference": 9.361679, "structural_low": 9.261, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.012197, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001722, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.063663, "worst_return": -0.003499, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.058766, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.022629, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.058766, "worst_return": 0.058766, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043939, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023038, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009915, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.101077, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-08-02", "close": 8.309, "volume": 12584, 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10.892509, 10.589752, 10.36532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.944, "volume": 556672, "typical_volume": 234946.75, "trend": 10.162333, "fair_value": 9.313903, "relative_strength": -2.646269, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.533999, "energy": 64.682945, "activity_lines": [ 10.964933, 10.914255, 10.651448, 10.418424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.954, "volume": 568863, "typical_volume": 244735.3, "trend": 10.202633, "fair_value": 9.329673, "relative_strength": -2.323785, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.296804, "energy": 64.253634, "activity_lines": [ 10.967067, 10.929491, 10.708114, 10.469499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.81, "volume": 358276, "typical_volume": 245448.2, "trend": 10.239633, "fair_value": 9.343771, "relative_strength": -4.151302, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.573957, "energy": 57.801842, "activity_lines": [ 10.919867, 10.9136, 10.74569, 10.508684 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.242, "volume": 366225, "typical_volume": 240492.85, "trend": 10.282533, "fair_value": 9.361679, "relative_strength": -3.114178, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.892756, "energy": 65.367501, "activity_lines": [ 11.017467, 10.976036, 10.819114, 10.573353 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }