{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99d29cbe-3f2f-4dc4-92bf-029fa4c0173e", "symbol": "OP2E", "name": "OSSIAM BLOOMBERG EUROZONE PAB NR", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.723, "architecture_energy": 52.329, "architecture_maturity": 44.487, "architecture_confidence": 58.442, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.36, "rotation_up": 45.05, "upward_expansion": 72.25, "deceleration": 73.38, "rotation_down": 28.26, "downward_expansion": 12.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 188.290666, 188.053817, 184.706284, 181.564386 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 192.960007, "trend_reference": 178.705332, "distance_from_trend": 0.079766, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 156.116795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235998, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.553093, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.090786, "excess_performance": 0.037474, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079766, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038119, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235998, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081375, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045531, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010486, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090786, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.015798, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 278, "relative_activity": 0.869973, "balance": 2.015798, "dry_up": 1.12502, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023528, "annualized_volatility": 0.179013, "from_high_reference": -0.003203, "from_low_reference": 0.216186 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 178.705332, "fair_value_reference": 156.116795, "structural_low": 158.660004, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.008503, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.010133, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.077104, "worst_return": -0.005834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.066565, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.068578, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.080619, "worst_return": 0.001997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05248, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.055958, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.128042, "worst_return": -0.02613, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037814, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012777, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046793, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013142, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", 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"trend": 175.473332, "fair_value": 154.080897, "relative_strength": 6.183716, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.954019, "energy": 83.514503, "activity_lines": [ 187.015999, 183.498544, 178.667808, 177.258751 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 191.279999, "volume": 103, "typical_volume": 278.05, "trend": 176.213998, "fair_value": 154.465897, "relative_strength": 6.681968, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.290603, "energy": 89.998762, "activity_lines": [ 188.819999, 185.476726, 180.092474, 178.278536 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 187.460007, "volume": 350, "typical_volume": 283.8, "trend": 176.827332, "fair_value": 154.792179, "relative_strength": 6.517611, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.72632, "energy": 82.361609, "activity_lines": [ 188.754668, 186.425818, 181.089047, 179.004085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 185.179993, "volume": 367, "typical_volume": 293.55, "trend": 177.292665, "fair_value": 155.105, "relative_strength": 5.100223, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.160708, "energy": 55.368179, "activity_lines": [ 187.607999, 186.687999, 181.839808, 179.542966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 184.899994, "volume": 375, "typical_volume": 294.0, "trend": 177.771332, "fair_value": 155.401923, "relative_strength": 4.407457, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.445229, "energy": 44.71691, "activity_lines": [ 186.505331, 186.720362, 182.55057, 180.033762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 186.759995, "volume": 418, "typical_volume": 312.75, "trend": 178.223999, "fair_value": 155.736795, "relative_strength": 3.730308, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.444714, "energy": 35.745603, "activity_lines": [ 186.342663, 186.877816, 183.376569, 180.613675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 192.960007, "volume": 278, "typical_volume": 319.55, "trend": 178.705332, "fair_value": 156.116795, "relative_strength": 4.553093, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.723354, "energy": 52.329489, "activity_lines": [ 188.290666, 188.053817, 184.706284, 181.564386 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }