{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99d6db0f-1047-45e5-9874-db479aaff6ab", "symbol": "CMG", "name": "Critical Minerals Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.371, "architecture_energy": 89.525, "architecture_maturity": 36.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.082, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 10.47, "upward_expansion": 21.94, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 82.24, "downward_expansion": 99.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.072267, 0.077564, 0.087457, 0.094013 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.07, "trend_reference": 0.103433, "distance_from_trend": -0.323236, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.150224, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.534029, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.031694, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.391304, "excess_performance": -0.45501, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.323236, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092955, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.534029, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245766, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.440317, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.365316, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.391304, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.138468, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91400, "relative_activity": 0.60596, "balance": 1.138468, "dry_up": 1.252894, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124176, "annualized_volatility": 0.670223, "from_high_reference": -0.708333, "from_low_reference": 0.029412 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.103433, "fair_value_reference": 0.150224, "structural_low": 0.068, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.006217, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.733333, "worst_return": -0.253846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.050435, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.565657, "worst_return": -0.33913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.188384, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.189617, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.38125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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69.233459, "activity_lines": [ 0.092067, 0.099473, 0.103662, 0.107 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.09, "volume": 130659, "typical_volume": 211186.85, "trend": 0.108633, "fair_value": 0.156621, "relative_strength": -28.327884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.156367, "energy": 66.557971, "activity_lines": [ 0.090267, 0.096982, 0.10199, 0.105776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.084, "volume": 26995, "typical_volume": 208285.7, "trend": 0.107767, "fair_value": 0.155814, "relative_strength": -33.533292, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.040599, "energy": 71.167622, "activity_lines": [ 0.0878, 0.093855, 0.099867, 0.104187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.084, "volume": 48443, "typical_volume": 202182.75, "trend": 0.1069, "fair_value": 0.15475, "relative_strength": -32.735379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.312717, "energy": 68.940974, "activity_lines": [ 0.086, 0.091018, 0.097914, 0.102654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.076, "volume": 209817, "typical_volume": 207634.95, "trend": 0.1062, "fair_value": 0.153794, "relative_strength": -38.560186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.238509, "energy": 73.239823, "activity_lines": [ 0.0822, 0.0872, 0.095348, 0.10066 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.074, "volume": 199573, "typical_volume": 146028.25, "trend": 0.1054, "fair_value": 0.152602, "relative_strength": -39.176705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.631371, "energy": 82.518856, "activity_lines": [ 0.078933, 0.083727, 0.092729, 0.098583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.069, "volume": 255131, "typical_volume": 156418.1, "trend": 0.104433, "fair_value": 0.151378, "relative_strength": -43.736998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.911055, "energy": 90.558154, "activity_lines": [ 0.074733, 0.080182, 0.0899, 0.096234 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.07, "volume": 91400, "typical_volume": 150835.0, "trend": 0.103433, "fair_value": 0.150224, "relative_strength": -44.031694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.370788, "energy": 89.52477, "activity_lines": [ 0.072267, 0.077564, 0.087457, 0.094013 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }