{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99d76c4a-7228-4786-aad4-aca7cb2956a4", "symbol": "GROW", "name": "Growens S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.627, "architecture_energy": 72.811, "architecture_maturity": 64.187, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.03, "rotation_up": 21.36, "upward_expansion": 14.85, "deceleration": 44.68, "rotation_down": 66.76, "downward_expansion": 90.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.856333, 1.897909, 1.996548, 2.099086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.83, "trend_reference": 2.260667, "distance_from_trend": -0.190504, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.866503, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.526704, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.504379, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.298851, "excess_performance": -0.469742, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.190504, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09198, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.526704, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103723, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.385044, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106641, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.298851, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.305541, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56913, "relative_activity": 0.801708, "balance": 0.305541, "dry_up": 0.864943, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059479, "annualized_volatility": 0.303649, "from_high_reference": -0.504065, "from_low_reference": 0.022346 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.260667, "fair_value_reference": 3.866503, "structural_low": 1.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.009368, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.041926, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.309524, "worst_return": -0.186992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.002283, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.061943, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.347518, "worst_return": -0.289568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.109493, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.202206, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.481132, "worst_return": -0.336395, "sufficient": true }, { 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.387191, "energy": 82.502136, "activity_lines": [ 1.956, 2.018182, 2.113, 2.223957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.895, "volume": 69190, "typical_volume": 76115.65, "trend": 2.357167, "fair_value": 3.919956, "relative_strength": -36.862566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.180271, "energy": 84.084572, "activity_lines": [ 1.929, 1.984909, 2.083143, 2.192108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.875, "volume": 60914, "typical_volume": 76428.0, "trend": 2.325667, "fair_value": 3.902485, "relative_strength": -36.590927, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.797452, "energy": 83.008689, "activity_lines": [ 1.905667, 1.956273, 2.054595, 2.161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.83, "volume": 58591, "typical_volume": 70467.5, "trend": 2.294, "fair_value": 3.884447, "relative_strength": -37.616792, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.46808, "energy": 76.425304, "activity_lines": [ 1.877, 1.924091, 2.024071, 2.129022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.83, "volume": 56913, "typical_volume": 70989.65, "trend": 2.260667, "fair_value": 3.866503, "relative_strength": -38.504379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.627407, "energy": 72.810752, "activity_lines": [ 1.856333, 1.897909, 1.996548, 2.099086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }