{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99da509b-051e-475f-b79c-01a4069d6992", "symbol": "300317", "name": "Jiawei Renewable Energy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.092, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.048, "architecture_energy": 20.524, "architecture_maturity": 40.902, "architecture_confidence": 68.085, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.82, "rotation_up": 24.1, "upward_expansion": 13.95, "deceleration": 46.6, "rotation_down": 31.53, "downward_expansion": 61.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.386, 4.292545, 4.591762, 4.73772 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.57, "trend_reference": 4.780333, "distance_from_trend": -0.044, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.281923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.067277, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.71334, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.117359, "excess_performance": 0.10996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025676, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.067277, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167056, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017133, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026267, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117359, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.990505, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 416199654, "relative_activity": 1.056906, "balance": 2.990505, "dry_up": 1.519276, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154014, "annualized_volatility": 0.634806, "from_high_reference": -0.366158, "from_low_reference": 0.336257 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.780333, "fair_value_reference": 4.281923, "structural_low": 3.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.01297, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.019029, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.259921, "worst_return": -0.175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.211666, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.056346, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.295522, "worst_return": -0.352031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041276, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.146361, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.176301, "worst_return": -0.402852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"energy": 70.865117, "activity_lines": [ 4.012667, 4.488727, 4.808571, 4.829527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.13, "volume": 301949139, "typical_volume": 431948560.2, "trend": 4.72, "fair_value": 4.308718, "relative_strength": -8.185924, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.114673, "energy": 64.132024, "activity_lines": [ 3.994667, 4.363273, 4.722238, 4.791892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.23, "volume": 879911377, "typical_volume": 421243542.85, "trend": 4.733667, "fair_value": 4.297564, "relative_strength": -5.982194, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.090496, "energy": 50.213919, "activity_lines": [ 4.049333, 4.278909, 4.651286, 4.76028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.57, "volume": 795045857, "typical_volume": 429529249.65, "trend": 4.756, "fair_value": 4.287885, "relative_strength": 3.263004, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.043825, "energy": 35.363905, "activity_lines": [ 4.233333, 4.279273, 4.619762, 4.74972 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.57, "volume": 416199654, "typical_volume": 393790471.45, "trend": 4.780333, "fair_value": 4.281923, "relative_strength": -1.71334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.048419, "energy": 20.524412, "activity_lines": [ 4.386, 4.292545, 4.591762, 4.73772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }