{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99e16559-f3bc-4076-a24a-792125cb900a", "symbol": "600683", "name": "Metro Land Corporation Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.234, "architecture_energy": 62.942, "architecture_maturity": 14.5, "architecture_confidence": 62.796, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.75, "rotation_up": 14.25, "upward_expansion": 29.25, "deceleration": 49.21, "rotation_down": 72.74, "downward_expansion": 58.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.266667, 9.479455, 11.433238, 11.215957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.83, "trend_reference": 10.164, "distance_from_trend": -0.131248, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.592692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.578846, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.868116, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.805726, "excess_performance": 0.84893, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.131248, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.244876, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.578846, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.814513, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.158681, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.635032, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.805726, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.365207, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102958150, "relative_activity": 0.834623, "balance": 0.365207, "dry_up": 0.874183, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.252548, "annualized_volatility": 0.989646, "from_high_reference": -0.595511, "from_low_reference": 1.264103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.164, "fair_value_reference": 5.592692, "structural_low": 4.84, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.010363, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.014072, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.091562, "worst_return": -0.205592, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012739, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.008178, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.711538, "worst_return": -0.11039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046632, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.017253, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.403846, "worst_return": -0.165171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088384, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010363, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002564, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007812, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031175, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.095923, 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.321296, "energy": 18.561961, "activity_lines": [ 11.442667, 12.815273, 12.988333, 11.674925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.37, "volume": 86280640, "typical_volume": 140022178.35, "trend": 9.798667, "fair_value": 5.557628, "relative_strength": 18.175465, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -19.571377, "energy": 32.62802, "activity_lines": [ 10.282667, 11.792727, 12.634, 11.591118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.52, "volume": 119674400, "typical_volume": 137886064.6, "trend": 9.904333, "fair_value": 5.56641, "relative_strength": 3.901492, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.836729, "energy": 56.079845, "activity_lines": [ 9.106667, 10.776727, 12.190905, 11.444108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.55, "volume": 122439381, "typical_volume": 132623014.9, "trend": 10.012, "fair_value": 5.575962, "relative_strength": 2.979204, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.679557, "energy": 66.019057, "activity_lines": [ 8.348, 9.935273, 11.748238, 11.292215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.83, "volume": 102958150, "typical_volume": 123358839.85, "trend": 10.164, "fair_value": 5.592692, "relative_strength": 15.868116, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.2341, "energy": 62.942068, "activity_lines": [ 8.266667, 9.479455, 11.433238, 11.215957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }