{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99e1be32-fba3-4f98-a905-33a0d3f90626", "symbol": "ULCC", "name": "Frontier Group Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.839, "architecture_energy": 31.048, "architecture_maturity": 69.809, "architecture_confidence": 87.636, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.48, "rotation_up": 36.48, "upward_expansion": 66.0, "deceleration": 85.18, "rotation_down": 26.82, "downward_expansion": 16.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.715333, 6.830545, 6.282619, 5.762538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.38, "trend_reference": 5.309, "distance_from_trend": 0.390092, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.268173, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.400865, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 29.85996, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.131902, "excess_performance": -0.055552, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.390092, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154884, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.400865, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.436636, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.2986, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.292288, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131902, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.342565, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20324867, "relative_activity": 0.834301, "balance": 1.342565, "dry_up": 0.901026, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143416, "annualized_volatility": 0.894128, "from_high_reference": -0.121951, "from_low_reference": 1.443709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.309, "fair_value_reference": 5.268173, "structural_low": 3.02, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.081658, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.137194, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.299525, "worst_return": -0.433613, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.336601, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.412503, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.057052, "worst_return": -0.423529, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.153863, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.228363, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148693, "worst_return": -0.456418, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.472222, 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"2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039216, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.203166, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.110251, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093878, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121547, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133144, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": 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"up", "direction": 62.62127, "energy": 52.869443, "activity_lines": [ 6.971333, 6.754182, 5.887095, 5.478473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.81, "volume": 18273327, "typical_volume": 24807378.35, "trend": 5.167, "fair_value": 5.276699, "relative_strength": 9.910787, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.789687, "energy": 33.451036, "activity_lines": [ 6.52, 6.651273, 5.951571, 5.522323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.75, "volume": 25928789, "typical_volume": 24622801.65, "trend": 5.239667, "fair_value": 5.268109, "relative_strength": 26.173408, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.72014, "energy": 25.101299, "activity_lines": [ 6.476, 6.7, 6.095143, 5.624452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.38, "volume": 20324867, "typical_volume": 24361546.4, "trend": 5.309, "fair_value": 5.268173, "relative_strength": 29.85996, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.838874, "energy": 31.048144, "activity_lines": [ 6.715333, 6.830545, 6.282619, 5.762538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }